804 AWUS01 KWNH 100841 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101430- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0958 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 431 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Areas affected...FL Panhandle...FL Big Bend...Far Southern AL...Far Southwest GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 100830Z - 101430Z Summary...Outer rainbands of Hurricane Michael are arriving across the FL panhandle and will become more intense over the next several hours. Very heavy rainfall will be associated with this, and some flooding or flash flooding will be possible. Discussion...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Michael continues to advance northward early this morning toward the FL panhandle. Outer rainbands with Michael are already beginning to move onshore, and the latest GOES-16 30-second satellite imagery shows several well-organized bands of convection lifting north and northwest around the eastern flank of the storm within strongly convergent low-level flow. The convection is taking advantage of more than enough instability that is pooled out across the eastern Gulf of Mexico with MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg. The environment will be conducive moving forward for some very strong convective bands to set up, move inland and train over the same area as large-scale forcing and shear parameters increase over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and inland over the FL panhandle. Expect there to be some added low-level frictional convergence as the low-level wind field around the northeast flank of Michael increasingly interacts with land, and this will attempt to enhance the convection near and just inland of the coast through the morning hours. Expect rainfall amounts of as much as 2 to 2.5 inches/hr within the stronger convective bands, and especially after 12Z. Rainfall amounts going through 15Z are expected in general to be on the order of 3 to 5 inches. This will set the stage for flooding and flash flooding concerns to initiate out ahead of the arrival of Michael's core convection. Much heavier rains are expected from late-morning through mid-afternoon as very strong central convection arrives over the FL panhandle and moves well inland over southeast AL and southwest GA. Strong training convective bands around the eastern flank of the storm will continue through this time-frame. Will continue to closely monitor. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC... LAT...LON 31308600 31198524 30848433 30338361 29728320 29438313 29318329 29658351 29938402 29858447 29628512 30068573 30138602 30288633 30348679 30368729 30498746 30768734 31118688