095 
FXUS65 KVEF 092339 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 PM PDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair conditions continue through Wednesday. A slight chance of
rain in extreme northern Lincoln county this evening. Better
chances for rain beginning Wednesday evening and persisting
through Thursday for eastern Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties 
as an upper level low evolves across the Southeast CONUS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A sweeping low pressure system at 500 mb will shift quickly
eastward tonight which could bring some very slight chances for
precip in northern Lincoln county. Latest HREF shows at least some
weak returns in the panhandle of Lincoln county but even this is
low confidence, however, majority of model depiction develop minor
precip and have for multiple model runs now so did not want to
leave this out of the grids. 

Better precip chances come with the evolution of the next upper 
level system which is depicted in models to stall over the southwest 
CONUS and increase in magnitude through the rest of the week. Best 
chances look to be overnight Wednesday night and through Thursday as 
a modest LLJ along the Colorado River feeds into the RE region of 
the elongated jet. Still quite a bit of model disagreement in the 
evolution of this synoptic pattern but at least through the weekend, 
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian brings Sergio across Baja California and into 
AZ/NM while closing the elongating low off the coast of California. 
Also, GFS/ECMWF bring a cold front through the area Saturday night 
into Sunday morning. This should push overnight lows into the 50s 
for the Las Vegas valley Monday and Tuesday. 


&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southwest winds are expected to become 
gusty, possibly up to 20-25 kts from 21-03Z. Winds should subside 
marginally in the late evening and overnight but should still stay 
gusty and out of the southwest. Winds likely won't calm to light and 
variable until after 09Z. No other impacts expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Clear skies and breezy afternoon winds are expected at 
all sites today. Some model indications show the possibility for 
very gusty winds at KBIH late this afternoon and overnight but not 
high enough confidence to include these higher values in the TAF. 
Amendments may be needed if these come to fruition. Otherwise, no 
other weather impacts expected. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TB3

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