840 
FXUS63 KUNR 111037
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
437 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Current upper level analysis has large trof across the western
CONUS with shortwave shifting east across Utah. Skies are clear to
cloudy across the Northern Plains, with low stratus deck across
central and eastern SD, and another smaller deck from the Black
Hills southeast into Nebraska. At the surface, high pressure is
located across the western Dakotas. Winds are light and
temperatures at 4am are in the 20s.

Area remains under western trof as Utah shortwave approaches from
the southwest. Some limited sunshine is expected today, 
especially east of the Black Hills in the morning, with clouds 
increasing from the west. Highs will remain very cool, upper 30s 
to mid 40s. Shortwave will cross the area tonight, bringing a more
widespread chance for light pcpn across the area. Pcpn will be 
mainly snow. Accumulations up to an inch are expected across 
northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southern portions of SD.

The system will exit south central SD early Friday, with clearing
skies and the mildest temps of the week behind it. Highs will be 
in the upper 40s and 50s. 

Fast northwest flow will bring a clipper system across the 
Northern Plains on Saturday. Chances for rain and snow showers are
expected from northeast WY to southwestern SD. The passing cold 
front will bring very gusty northwest winds for much of the day on
Saturday, with gusts to 45 mph possible. Temperatures will be
somewhat mild in the morning, but fall off quickly after the cold
front moves through the area. Dry and cold conditions are expected
on Sunday.

After a dry and slightly warmer day on Monday, another clipper 
system is expected on Tuesday. Latest model runs have shifted the
strongest winds a little further east, and it looks like a dry 
frontal passage. Temperatures will remain below average.

Dry conditions are expected to persist into late next week with a
warm up finally occurring across the area. Models all agree on
bringing an upper ridge into the western CONUS by midweek, with 
temperatures finally rising back into the upper 50s and 60s from 
Wednesday into next weekend.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1123 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Area of MVFR ceilings will persist through the night across
portions of northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota...and
into central South Dakota. VFR conditions expected across the area
on Thursday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...7