765 
FXUS63 KUNR 110524
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1124 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Current surface analysis shows low pressure with exiting system 
over WI and another area of low pressure over CO. Upper level 
analysis shows exiting trough over western MN. Another shortwave 
is located over southern WY into northern CO, but is weakening as 
it moves eastward. Areas of light snow and flurries are 
diminishing across the area. Temps are mostly in the low to mid 
30s with brisk north-northwest winds over the SD plains. 

Conditions will continue to gradually improve late today into the 
evening. Skies will at least partially clear in most areas tonight 
with winds diminishing in the evening. Lows will mostly be in the 
20s, with some teens over the Black Hills and usual colder spots on 
the plains. Some limited sunshine is expected on Thursday, 
especially east of the Black Hills in the morning, with increasing 
clouds from the west by the afternoon as the next system approaches 
the area. Highs will remain very cool, mid 30s to mid 40s. The 
system is going to pass a bit further north across the region late 
Thursday and Thursday night, bringing a more widespread chance for 
pcpn across the area. The best chances will still be across 
northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southern SD. Pcpn will be snow or 
rain changing to snow over southern and eastern areas. Accumulations 
up to an inch or two are expected across mainly northeast WY and the 
Black Hills. 

The system will exit south central SD early Friday, with clearing 
skies and the mildest temps of the week behind it. Highs will be in 
the upper 40s and 50s. Fast northwest flow will bring a clipper 
system across the Northern Plains on Saturday. Still some 
uncertainty on how far south the main shortwave will track, but 
chances for rain and snow showers are expected from northeast WY to 
southern SD. The passing cold front will bring gusty northwest winds 
on Saturday. Another clipper system is expected early next week, 
with possible showers and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain 
below average through early next week. Models continue to show a 
potential warmup mid to late next week, at least back to near 
average temperatures.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1123 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Area of MVFR ceilings will persist through the night across
portions of northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota...and
into central South Dakota. VFR conditions expected across the area
on Thursday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...7