430 
FXUS63 KUNR 101738
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1138 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Current surface analysis shows low pressure with exiting system over
western WI, with another area of low pressure over CO. Upper level
analysis shows exiting trough over the eastern Dakotas into
western MN. Another shortwave is located over southern WY into
northern CO. Areas of light snow and flurries linger from
northwest SD and the Black Hills to central SD. Temps are in the
upper 20s to mid 30s with brisk northerly winds over the SD
plains. 

Winter wx advisory has been cancelled a bit early as accumulating
snowfall has ended. Lingering light snow will taper off through 
the early to mid afternoon. Skies will stay cloudy with highs only
in the 30s. Minor adjustments to the forecast have been made
through the afternoon.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Current upper level analysis has large trof over the western CONUS
with one strong shortwave lifting north through the Dakotas and
Minnesota, and the second sliding across northern Utah. Skies are
mostly cloudy across the Dakotas with widespread light to moderate
snow occurring. At the surface, low pressure is located across 
Iowa with large Canadian high pressure over central Saskatchewan. 
Boundary layer flow is predominately out of the north, with 3am 
temperatures in the lower 30s.

Large upper level shortwave and and associated snow band will
gradually shift north and east of the forecast area this morning.
Another 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected across southwest into
central South Dakota this morning before the snow finally tapers
off by early afternoon. Breezy north winds will produce some areas
of lower visibility at times. A Winter Weather Advisory remains 
in place for this area through about noon. Cloudy skies are 
expected for the remainder of the day with highs only in the mid 
to upper 30s. 

Wednesday night into Thursday looks mainly dry, but still cold as
the next system over Utah slides east through the Rockies. As it 
eventually moves through the Central Plains later Thursday to 
early Friday, there could be some rain/snow showers across 
northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southern SD. Friday looks to be
the nicest day of the week, at least with regard to temperatures.
Highs will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. 

A clipper system will then move southeast across the Northern Plains 
on Saturday, with gusty winds and some rain/snow showers expected, 
especially across northeast WY and the Black Hills area. 
Temperatures will drop well below average again behind the front, 
with highs in the 30s on Sunday. Another clipper system could 
impact the area Monday night into Tuesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1137 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will gradually improve to VFR this
afternoon as snowfall exits east of the forecast area. VFR
conditions are expected for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13