418 
FLUS44 KTSA 091822
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
122 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
122 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. 
    ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. 
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe storms will affect far eastern 
Oklahoma and western Arkansas through mid to late afternoon. This 
includes areas to the east of a Vinita to Webbers Falls line. The 
severe threat has diminished to the west of this line, although 
scattered showers and storms are likely across the entire area.

Given the strong low level wind shear and rich moisture, the main
threats with these storms are tornadoes and damaging winds. There
may not be much lead time with any tornadoes that do develop 
given the transient nature of the low level circulations. If a
warning is issued for your area, be prepared to take shelter
immediately. 

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... 
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Heavy Rain Potential. 
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Much cooler weather is expected across the region on Thursday and
Friday. 

The remnants of Hurricane Sergio in the Pacific are expected to
move across the region on Saturday, ahead of another strong cold 
front. Very heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible. The 
exact track of the remnant moisture is still uncertain, but the 
latest trends in the data suggest that the heaviest rainfall will 
fall across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas


weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

CORFIDI