092 
FXUS64 KTSA 102322
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period 
at all area TAF sites. 



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool weather will continue into early next week. An
upper trof will bring a chance of some light rain late Thursday
night and Friday, and will also send a reinforcing cold front
through the area. Moisture from the remnants of Pacific hurricane
Sergio will bring widespread rain Saturday and Saturday night, but
there continues to be significant model differences as to just
where the heaviest rainfall will occur, with the ECMWF well south
of the GFS. Another reinforcing cold front arrives Sunday, with
the coldest air yet to follow in its wake. Another upper trof
swings across the area Monday, with the ECMWF showing widespread
rainfall at that time while the GFS is dry. Will lean towards the
ECMWF at this time, with a raw damp day looking more likely for
Monday. A warming trend will commence Tuesday into the latter part
of next week, with dry weather likely to prevail much of that
time. 

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  41  60  48 /   0   0   0  40 
FSM   69  46  66  49 /  10   0   0  20 
MLC   67  45  64  50 /   0   0   0  30 
BVO   61  38  58  45 /   0   0   0  50 
FYV   65  39  60  41 /  10   0   0  20 
BYV   66  41  60  43 /  10   0   0  20 
MKO   65  44  62  48 /   0   0   0  30 
MIO   62  40  58  45 /   0   0   0  20 
F10   65  44  61  49 /   0   0   0  40 
HHW   71  48  68  51 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....10