411 FXUS64 KTSA 101107 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 607 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below. && .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR/IFR cigs this morning will give way to VFR conditions by afternoon at all TAF sites behind a cold front. Winds will be a little gusty out of the W/NW at the NW AR sites during the day. Lacy && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... Main forecast concerns this morning involve the potential for more heavy rain and possible flooding this weekend, associated with another strong cold front and the remnant moisture from current Tropical Storm Sergio. At present, the much anticipated cold front, bringing a dose of more fall like weather to the region, is progressing eastward across eastern Oklahoma early this morning. A narrow band of light showers is coincident with the front and should continue on its journey east. Will hang on to low POPs across parts of western Arkansas this morning, with the afternoon still expected to be dry with clearing skies. Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will prevail into Thursday night, but a fast moving upper level storm system swinging across the northern and central Plains will bring the potential for light rain Friday mainly to northern portions of the forecast area. Moderate to heavy rain potential will begin to increase from the west likely by Saturday afternoon and evening as the remnants of Sergio move in from the southwest. At the same time, an upper level trough in the northern Plains region will bring a surge of cold air southward, which will help focus the heaviest rainfall. The GFS has, by far, been the most consistent model over the past couple of days, showing the heaviest axis setting up late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, somewhere across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. The bulk of the heaviest rain should move out Sunday, with perhaps a few showers lingering into early next week across southern and eastern parts of the area. Even colder air is expected to arrive behind the weekend cold front, with some guidance showing freezing temperatures for the typical cold spots Monday and Tuesday mornings. If this trend continues, at the very least, we may see the first Frost Advisories of the season for the area early next week. Yet another round of showers will be possible toward the middle of next week as another cold front moves through the area, and will go with broadbrush POPs for this potential due to existing differences in the guidance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 43 61 47 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 70 46 67 49 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 66 47 64 49 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 61 39 59 46 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 65 40 61 43 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 67 42 61 44 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 65 44 63 47 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 63 40 59 44 / 0 0 0 10 F10 65 44 63 47 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 71 49 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....30