658 
FXUS64 KTSA 092054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
354 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The severe weather threat has shifted into the far eastern part of
our forecast area, across parts of northwest Arkansas. Occasional
showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, will continue overnight
until a cold front sweeps east across the area later tonight. 
Much cooler air will move into the area behind the front, with 
well below normal temperatures expected for at least the next 
week.

Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Sergio in the Pacific 
will stream northeast over the area this weekend bringing 
widespread rain. The models have not been consistent on just where
the heaviest rainfall will occur, but the potential will exist 
for heavy rainfall somewhere in our vicinity over the weekend.

Will keep low pops going into early next week with model
differences with the upper flow pattern. The UKMET favors
persistent moist southwest flow aloft, while the ECMWF and GFS
both tend to dry out at least the northern part of the forecast
area. If skies can clear early next week, the first freezing
temperatures of the season may occur in some locations.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  66  43  61 /  60   0   0   0 
FSM   61  72  48  67 /  90  10   0   0 
MLC   53  68  46  64 /  80   0   0   0 
BVO   50  64  38  59 /  60   0   0   0 
FYV   58  67  40  61 /  90  10   0   0 
BYV   60  70  43  61 /  90  20   0   0 
MKO   53  67  45  63 /  80  10   0   0 
MIO   54  64  41  59 /  80   0   0   0 
F10   51  67  45  62 /  60   0   0   0 
HHW   59  73  49  69 /  80   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

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