173 FXUS64 KTSA 091829 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 129 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Line of storms will continue across far eastern Oklahoma and western Oklahoma thru this afternoon. There could be some gusty conditions, as well as MVFR ceilings as the storms move through the AR terminals. Behind the line, the ceilings and visibilities have come up to VFR, though showers with embedded lightning is possible thru the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1041 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... Quasi linear convective system extends from western Osage County to just west of McAlester. Tornado watch remains in effect until 2pm for eastern Oklahoma. Multiple reports of tornadoes have been reported in the OKC area earlier this morning with this line. That's not surprising, given 0-1km shear on the order of 40-45kt, with 50kt of flow noted on the 12z Norman sounding. High quality moisture is also in place with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Current radar analysis shows transient low level circulations along the line. Near term threat will be quick spin-up tornadoes along the leading edge of the convective line. There is a mesoscale boundary across northeast Oklahoma, running from near Coffeyville to Pawhuska. Any segments that interact with this boundary, or any other boundaries, will have an increased risk for a tornado. This line will be affecting the Tulsa metro within the next hour. Damaging winds will also be a threat, with 45-55 mph winds recently observed on the OK mesonet. It's interesting to note that there isn't a lot of lightning associated with this activity, but that doesn't diminish the tornado potential. This does look like it will be the main event for the day, with the severe threat decreasing after the line of storms passes. Updated forecasts sent shortly. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ LONG TERM....05 AVIATION.....06 CORFIDI