319 FXUS63 KTOP 102330 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 630 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Surface low and associated main upper wave are now moving across the Upper Midwest leaving the area within northwest low level flow as high pressure builds into the area. Expect skies to clear after sunset with mid cloud associated with another shortwave now across CO expected to remain mainly north of the area overnight. Given expected lows and high RH overnight will leave mention of patchy frost in the forecast with areas of frost across north central KS and leave the advisory as is. On Thursday look for a very cool but pleasant fall day as the sfc high moves across the area. Avg highs are still around 70 for this time of year so temps will be 10-20 below avg for highs tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Appears that we will remain in an active pattern with 2 shortwave troughs expected to impact the area Friday through Sunday. The first will bring a cold rain to the area late Thursday night through Friday. Rainfall amounts should remain between 0.25 to 0.50 so it should not exacerbate the ongoing river flooding. Highs on Friday will be very cool staying in the upper 40s to lower 50s at best. We should get a break Friday night into at least some part of Saturday before a bonafide polar airmass/cold front sweeps south across the area Saturday night. A positively tilted trough may provide enough forcing to produce a very cold rain or mix of rain and snow showers on Sunday or Sunday night given low level thermal profiles. Highs on Sunday may remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s on Sunday and depending on the timing of the system if skies clear Sunday night into Monday morning we would see the first killing freeze of the season with lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Expect the MVFR stratus ceilings at KTOP and KFOE to rise above 3000 feet early this evening. Then skies will clear from west to east across the area late this evening and through the early morning hours of Thursday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ008>010-020- 021-034. && $$ SHORT TERM...Omitt LONG TERM...Omitt AVIATION...Gargan