989 
FXUS63 KTOP 102028
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Surface low and associated main upper wave are now moving across
the Upper Midwest leaving the area within northwest low level flow
as high pressure builds into the area. Expect skies to clear after
sunset with mid cloud associated with another shortwave now across
CO expected to remain mainly north of the area overnight. Given
expected lows and high RH overnight will leave mention of patchy
frost in the forecast with areas of frost across north central KS
and leave the advisory as is. 

On Thursday look for a very cool but pleasant fall day as the sfc
high moves across the area. Avg highs are still around 70 for 
this time of year so temps will be 10-20 below avg for highs
tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Appears that we will remain in an active pattern with 2 shortwave
troughs expected to impact the area Friday through Sunday. The
first will bring a cold rain to the area late Thursday night
through Friday. Rainfall amounts should remain between 0.25 to
0.50 so it should not exacerbate the ongoing river flooding.
Highs on Friday will be very cool staying in the upper 40s to
lower 50s at best.

We should get a break Friday night into at least some part of
Saturday before a bonafide polar airmass/cold front sweeps south
across the area Saturday night. A positively tilted trough may
provide enough forcing to produce a very cold rain or mix of rain
and snow showers on Sunday or Sunday night given low level thermal
profiles. Highs on Sunday may remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s
on Sunday and depending on the timing of the system if skies clear
Sunday night into Monday morning we would see the first killing
freeze of the season with lows in the 20s.  


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

MVFR CIGS should become VFR this afternoon as the low pressure
system pulls away and drier air arrives in the lowest several
thousand feet. Northwest winds will continue to gust until around
sunset. 


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ008>010-020-
021-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt