197 
FXUS63 KTOP 100452
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Currently, upper trough is advancing east with strong ascent 
associated with lead shortwave lifting through east central KS into 
northwestern MO.  A portion of the main trough is becoming 
negatively tilted with vort max rotating into eastern TX. Meanwhile, 
upper trough axis is sweeping through the Desert Southwest and 
expected to continue lifting through the forecast area by the 
overnight period tonight.  At the surface, low pressure is advancing 
northeast and pre-frontal trough and associated convection is moving 
out of east central areas.  Deformation zone precip shield should 
provide the last bit of precipitation over the area this evening. 
Severe weather threat was short lived today and should be on the 
decrease over eastern areas.  Flood potential will also be greatly 
decreasing over the next several hours as the dry slot works into 
the area.  However, several rivers will continue to remain minor to 
moderate flooding mainly into Wednesday and Thursday time frame.  

As the cold front continue to push through the area tonight, colder 
air will gradually filter into the area with a drying trend in 
place.  Will keep low stratus into at least the morning tomorrow. 
With more cloud cover near the KS/NE border, have kept temperatures 
down into the upper 40s with only 50s south of I-70 with possibly 
some peeks of sunshine finally into the afternoon.  

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Into the Thursday morning time frame, colder air will have advanced 
further into the area.  Under mostly clear skies, expect 
temperatures to drop to the low to mid 30s.  Expectation is that 
some areas will see frost potential especially over north central 
areas and along the Hwy 36 corridor.    

Thursday should remain dry.  Friday will see the next shot of 
moisture work over the area early in the day as an upper wave 
amplifies and digs into the region.  Mid level frontogenetical 
response should lead to enough ascent to overspread the area with 
showers.  Uncertain in chances for thunder at this time, but 
instability looks rather limited.  Therefore, have only gone with 
showers at this time.  Into the weekend, tropical influences from 
the Pacific system will potential work into the area.  Indications 
continue to be that the phasing with the upper pattern will take the 
track of this system more on the southern fringes of the area.  So, 
it is possible that the precipitation forecast for this time may be 
on the higher end.  

Overall, temps for the period will be cooler than normal and 
potential for some flurries by early next week may work into the 
area. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

The surface front has moved through KMHK and should move through
KTOP and KFOE by 9Z WED. Behind the front expect IFR/low MVFR 
stratus ceilings through 12-14Z WED. Expect VFR conditions after
14Z at all terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan