089 FXUS63 KTOP 092338 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 638 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Currently, upper trough is advancing east with strong ascent associated with lead shortwave lifting through east central KS into northwestern MO. A portion of the main trough is becoming negatively tilted with vort max rotating into eastern TX. Meanwhile, upper trough axis is sweeping through the Desert Southwest and expected to continue lifting through the forecast area by the overnight period tonight. At the surface, low pressure is advancing northeast and pre-frontal trough and associated convection is moving out of east central areas. Deformation zone precip shield should provide the last bit of precipitation over the area this evening. Severe weather threat was short lived today and should be on the decrease over eastern areas. Flood potential will also be greatly decreasing over the next several hours as the dry slot works into the area. However, several rivers will continue to remain minor to moderate flooding mainly into Wednesday and Thursday time frame. As the cold front continue to push through the area tonight, colder air will gradually filter into the area with a drying trend in place. Will keep low stratus into at least the morning tomorrow. With more cloud cover near the KS/NE border, have kept temperatures down into the upper 40s with only 50s south of I-70 with possibly some peeks of sunshine finally into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Into the Thursday morning time frame, colder air will have advanced further into the area. Under mostly clear skies, expect temperatures to drop to the low to mid 30s. Expectation is that some areas will see frost potential especially over north central areas and along the Hwy 36 corridor. Thursday should remain dry. Friday will see the next shot of moisture work over the area early in the day as an upper wave amplifies and digs into the region. Mid level frontogenetical response should lead to enough ascent to overspread the area with showers. Uncertain in chances for thunder at this time, but instability looks rather limited. Therefore, have only gone with showers at this time. Into the weekend, tropical influences from the Pacific system will potential work into the area. Indications continue to be that the phasing with the upper pattern will take the track of this system more on the southern fringes of the area. So, it is possible that the precipitation forecast for this time may be on the higher end. Overall, temps for the period will be cooler than normal and potential for some flurries by early next week may work into the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 South-southwest winds of 12 to 16 KTS with gusts to 25 KTS should diminish early this evening. Expect stratus with MVFR ceilings to continue through the night. A cold front will move across the terminals after 06Z WED and shift the winds from the southwest to the northwest at speeds below 11 KTS. Expect VFR conditions after 14Z WED at all terminals. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ008>012-020>024-026- 034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Drake LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...Gargan