832 FXUS63 KTOP 092050 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Currently, upper trough is advancing east with strong ascent associated with lead shortwave lifting through east central KS into northwestern MO. A portion of the main trough is becoming negatively tilted with vort max rotating into eastern TX. Meanwhile, upper trough axis is sweeping through the Desert Southwest and expected to continue lifting through the forecast area by the overnight period tonight. At the surface, low pressure is advancing northeast and pre-frontal trough and associated convection is moving out of east central areas. Deformation zone precip shield should provide the last bit of precipitation over the area this evening. Severe weather threat was short lived today and should be on the decrease over eastern areas. Flood potential will also be greatly decreasing over the next several hours as the dry slot works into the area. However, several rivers will continue to remain minor to moderate flooding mainly into Wednesday and Thursday time frame. As the cold front continue to push through the area tonight, colder air will gradually filter into the area with a drying trend in place. Will keep low stratus into at least the morning tomorrow. With more cloud cover near the KS/NE border, have kept temperatures down into the upper 40s with only 50s south of I-70 with possibly some peeks of sunshine finally into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Into the Thursday morning time frame, colder air will have advanced further into the area. Under mostly clear skies, expect temperatures to drop to the low to mid 30s. Expectation is that some areas will see frost potential especially over north central areas and along the Hwy 36 corridor. Thursday should remain dry. Friday will see the next shot of moisture work over the area early in the day as an upper wave amplifies and digs into the region. Mid level frontogenetical response should lead to enough ascent to overspread the area with showers. Uncertain in chances for thunder at this time, but instability looks rather limited. Therefore, have only gone with showers at this time. Into the weekend, tropical influences from the Pacific system will potential work into the area. Indications continue to be that the phasing with the upper pattern will take the track of this system more on the southern fringes of the area. So, it is possible that the precipitation forecast for this time may be on the higher end. Overall, temps for the period will be cooler than normal and potential for some flurries by early next week may work into the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 For the 18Z TAFs, frontal system with low pressure center should finally push through the area by the second half of the period. this will bring a veering wind shift progressively through the afternoon then winds will be from the west by this late evening at all sites as the cold front pushes east of the area. Do expect the greatest threat for TSRA over the KTOP/KFOE sites this afternoon, so have gone with VCTS due to uncertainty in actual development. CIGS are expected to be mostly MVFR for the period, but could see a period of IFR CIGS near the early morning time frame with colder air moving into the region. Thinking wind gusts will be minimal for the majority of the period as stronger colder air push lags the initial front. Not certain on VIS restrictions, but with generally low level dry air working into the area, expecting a low stratus situation. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ008>012-020>024-026- 034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Drake LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...Drake