269 FXUS65 KTFX 111127 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 526 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS... Low clouds, areas fog and flurries will end this morning with continued cool but drier conditions this afternoon along with clearing skies. The next weather system to affect the region will move southeast into the Canadian Rockies tonight then across Alberta and Saskatchewan Friday. Warmer but windy conditions are expected Friday before a cold front moves south across the region bringing snow showers Friday night and a brief period of much colder temperatures Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday...Upper level trough will begin to shift east today as an upper level ridge moves inland across BC and the Pacific NW. Areas of low clouds and fog as well as some flurries this morning will end from W to east by mid-day as drier air aloft moves into the region. A cold airmass and generally light winds will keep temperatures around 15 degrees below seasonal averages today before more significant warming arrives later tonight through early Friday. A fairly potent shortwave and surface low clips SE across southern AB/SK Friday, sending a cold front south across the forecast area late Friday afternoon and evening. Increasing WNW winds aloft and the development of a lee-side surface trough of low pressure late tonight through Friday afternoon will bring increasing winds to the area with much of N-central MT likely to see rising temperatures late tonight as winds develop. Very windy conditions are likely across much of the area Friday with potential for sustained winds of 25-35kts across western portions of north- central MT and gusts over 50kts likely along the immediate east slopes of the Rockies. A period of gusty N/NW winds is possible Thursday night following the frontal passage as a colder airmass surges south into the region. As is typical with clipper type systems, moisture is somewhat limited and precipitation moves through quickly Friday night through Saturday morning with snow accumulation of 1-3 inches possible across the Mtns of central MT and the Rocky Mtn front with less than an inch expected elsewhere. A much colder airmass lingers over the region through Saturday afternoon with temperatures about 20 degrees colder than Friday (and seasonal averages). -Hoenisch Saturday Night through Thursday...A lingering cold northerly flow aloft in the wake of the low pressure trough will keep at least a slight chance of snow over the mountains and north-facing mountain slopes through Saturday night. A high pressure ridge centered off the Pacific coast will then gradually spread east across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies through the remainder of the period. This should keep the forecast under a warming and drying pattern with breezy westerly winds at times. Previous model runs hinted that a weak shortwave trough would move southeast over Montana Monday into Tuesday along the leading edge of the ridge, but models agree on now keeping this disturbance well east of the area. Because of this warming and drying pattern, have also trended high temperatures warmer this period, closer to the warmer model guidance. This should help keep high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s at lower elevations and in the 40s in the mountains for much of the work week. Coulston && .AVIATION... Updated 1200Z. MVFR to IFR conditions will continue across much of the region this this morning with a low cloud deck in place. A few light snow showers are also possible across central and SW MT this morning. Improvement expected from NW to SE late this morning through this afternoon as drier air moves into the region with VFR conditions prevailing at most locations by mid-day. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 33 61 30 / 10 0 10 60 CTB 43 33 57 28 / 0 0 0 40 HLN 47 31 58 31 / 10 0 0 60 BZN 47 24 56 30 / 10 0 0 40 WEY 39 19 41 23 / 40 10 10 20 DLN 44 24 55 29 / 10 0 0 10 HVR 43 29 59 30 / 10 0 10 30 LWT 39 28 59 28 / 20 0 0 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls