033 FXUS62 KTBW 102127 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 527 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM/MID TERM (Tonight-Friday)... Hurricane Michael will continue to move northeast across the southeast U.S. and out into the Atlantic Ocean over the next couple of days. Breezy south to southwest winds will diminish tonight and shift to southwest to west Thursday as Michael moves away from the area. We'll continue to see scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across the area as the plume of deep moisture associated with Michael lingers, but does begin to shift south, across the region. For Thursday night into Friday a weak cool front will move south across the region with high pressure building from the northwest ushering in our first shot of drier air. A few showers will be possible ahead of this boundary, especially across southwest Florida where deeper moisture will still reside. Otherwise, skies will clear with more comfortable conditions working there way south during the day. Temperatures will continue well above normal tonight in the tropical airmass with lows in the mid 70s to around 80 with highs on Thursday back into the mid 80s to near 90. Thursday night lows will dip into the 60s across much of the Nature Coast where the drier air will begin to move in, with lower to middle 70s across the central and south. Daytime highs on Friday will remain near normal and climb back into the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM (Friday Night-Wednesday)... The upper low associated with Hurricane Michael has moved well to the northeast over the Mid-Atlantic region by the start of the long term period. Upper ridging will build in from the Gulf of Mexico and set up over the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. On the surface, Hurricane Michael will be located over the Mid-Atlantic region continuing to move rapidly northeastward into the Atlantic by the weekend. As the storm pulls away to the northeast, high pressure will build into the area by Friday, which will allow for drier air to filter into the region producing decreasing rain chances and lower humidities through the weekend. The high will move off the east coast by Monday which will result in easterly wind flow over Florida allowing for increasing moisture and rain chances to return over the peninsula through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... Scattered to numerous quick moving showers and isolated thunderstorms will cause MVFR/local IFR conditions along with some gusty winds through the period, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected to return later tonight into Thursday. The breezy southerly flow will diminish tonight and shift to southwest to west on Thursday. && .MARINE... Conditions will improve across the coastal waters tonight into Thursday as Michael moves away from the area. Winds will subside tonight and seas will take a little longer, but still should be below Small Craft Advisory by late Thursday. Will need to extend Small Craft Advisory later this evening once the tropical warnings expire. High pressure will build back over the area late in the week into the weekend with lighter winds and seas returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is anticipated. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 79 89 74 87 / 60 40 10 10 FMY 79 87 75 88 / 40 50 60 30 GIF 78 91 72 89 / 50 50 10 10 SRQ 80 87 74 87 / 60 50 30 10 BKV 79 89 67 87 / 60 40 20 10 SPG 79 88 77 86 / 60 40 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/MID TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close LONG TERM...74/Wynn