662 FXUS62 KTBW 100914 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 514 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... The center of extremely dangerous Major Hurricane Michael is located about 250 miles west of the NWS TBW office this morning and our thoughts remain with those directly in the path of this storm. Locally, we have been dealing with higher than normal water levels, as expected, but not much else other than cloudiness, breezy conditions, and a few gusty showers. Very surreal for us with such a dangerous storm just to our west. The overall forecast philosophy has not changed much for today and into Thursday, with the main impact still expected to be storm surge. A few isolated tornadoes will be possible as well, especially for our northern counties. Winds today will gradually turn southerly and then southwest and then west into Thursday as Michael rapidly pulls away from the region. Rain bands currently over our coastal waters will persist, with some of them moving over land through the day. Generally, off and on rainfall with gusty winds into the tropical storm-force range can be expected along with abundant cloudiness. Rain chances will linger into the first part of Thursday, but then drier air will work into the region from the north behind Michael. Surface high pressure over the plains region will shift eastward Friday into the weekend, with some drier air actually looking to make it over the region. Dew points on Saturday are currently forecast to be in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. High temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 80s, but it at least should feel a bit nicer outside. This is short-lived, with dew points going back up Sunday and into next week. Really no significant synoptic features to speak of into early next week, as high pressure aloft builds over the region. Rain chances will be on the lower side, but still expecting some isolated to scattered activity. && .AVIATION... 10/06Z TAF cycle. VFR BKN-OVC clouds give way to prevailing MVFR BKN- OVC CIGS in the next few hours as bands of SHRA and gusty winds sweep across the terminals through the rest of the morning. MVFR continues for the afternoon with ISOLD TSRA and PSBL IFR. Conditions slowly improve AFT sunset. Stout and gusty E winds gradually veer to S to S-SW by this evening. && .MARINE... Tropical storm conditions will be possible across the Gulf waters from Venice northward, with hurricane conditions possible over the offshore waters adjacent to the Nature Coast Wednesday. Extremely hazardous seas are expected across the entire region. Winds will gradually diminish Wednesday night and Thursday as Michael moves farther away from the region, but seas will take longer to subside. High pressure will build back over the area late in the week with lighter winds and seas returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. A typical distribution of scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected. No significant fog is anticipated. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 87 80 88 75 / 80 70 60 10 FMY 88 79 87 76 / 50 40 60 30 GIF 89 78 90 73 / 60 50 50 10 SRQ 86 81 86 76 / 80 60 70 20 BKV 87 80 89 72 / 70 70 50 10 SPG 87 80 88 76 / 80 70 60 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota. Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Pasco-Pinellas. Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy- Inland Citrus-Inland Levy. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters. Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Carlisle/McKaughan/Rude