761 FXUS62 KTBW 092100 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM/MID TERM (Tonight-Thursday)... Hurricane Michael will continue to move north across the Gulf of Mexico and into the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend over the next couple of days with the main impact for our local forecast area still expected to be dangerous storm surge. Southeast winds tonight will shift to south and increase during Wednesday as Michael moves by to the west, then shift to southwest and begin to diminish Wednesday night, and eventually more westerly on Thursday as the storm moves away from the region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish this evening on land, but increase in coverage over the coastal waters overnight as some of the outer rainbands move in and approach the coast toward morning. These bands will move across the region Wednesday with off and on rain and gusty winds to tropical storm force possible in the convection. Wednesday night into Thursday we'll continue to see scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across the area as the plume of deep moisture associated with Michael lingers, but does begin to shift south, across the region. Temperatures will be well above normal tonight and Wednesday night in the tropical airmass with lows in the mid 70s to around 80 and then close to normal in the mid 80s to near 90 for daytime highs on Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM (Thursday Night-Tuesday)... The upper ridge of high pressure that has been over the southeast U.S. has moved east near Bermuda and continues to play a big role in steering Hurricane Michael northward into the Florida panhandle. The ridge will flatten out and become more northeast to southwest oriented by the end of the week as Hurricane Michael moves northeast. Very little change in the upper pattern is expected through the long term period. On the surface, Hurricane Michael will have made landfall over the panhandle, while showers and storms on the east side of the storm will be moving through the region early Thursday. As the storm pulls away to the northeast, high pressure will build into the area by Saturday, which will allow for drier air to filter into the region producing decreasing rain chances and lower humidities through the weekend. The high will move off the east coast by Monday which will result in easterly wind flow over Florida allowing for increasing moisture and rain chances to return over the peninsula through the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above average with daytime highs near 90 each day. && .AVIATION... Scattered quick moving showers and isolated thunderstorms will cause MVFR/local IFR conditions along with gusty winds up to around 35 knots into early this evening, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected into early tonight. Late tonight through Wednesday more widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms causing some occasional IFR conditions. The breezy southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots tonight will shift to south and increase to 15 to 20 knots during Wednesday with some higher gusts. && .MARINE... Tropical storm conditions will be possible across the Gulf waters from Venice northward, with hurricane conditions possible over the offshore waters adjacent to the Nature Coast Wednesday. Extremely hazardous seas are expected across the entire region. Winds will gradually diminish Wednesday night and Thursday as Michael moves farther away from the region, but seas will take longer to subside. High pressure will build back over the area late in the week with lighter winds and seas returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels. No significant fog is anticipated. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 79 87 80 88 / 30 80 60 60 FMY 78 88 79 88 / 30 60 50 60 GIF 77 89 77 89 / 20 80 50 50 SRQ 79 88 81 88 / 60 80 60 60 BKV 80 87 79 89 / 20 70 60 60 SPG 79 87 80 87 / 50 80 60 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota. Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Pasco-Pinellas. Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy- Inland Citrus-Inland Levy. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters. Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/MID TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn