567 FXUS62 KTAE 111343 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 943 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...Remaining Very Warm Today for Recovery Efforts, However, Relief is On The Way... .UPDATE... Drier air will slowly advect into the area as Tropical Storm Michael transits the Carolinas and pulls a cold front across the area. Although calm conditions left in Michael's wake will allow recovery efforts to begin in earnest today, caution should be exercised as temperatures will remain several degrees above early October climatology this afternoon, particularly across the Panhandle and Big Bend area. These temperatures, combined with plentiful low-level moisture and elevated dewpoints, will make it feel like it is in the low to mid 90s for a time (shortest durations across SE Alabama, longest across the Big Bend region). Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected as moisture gradually scours out in developing NW flow behind the front. Pleasant conditions are expected areawide tonight as temperatures fall into the low 50s across SE Alabama to the low 60s across the Big Bend and immediate coastline. && .AVIATION [Through 12Z Friday]... Lingering low-level moisture left in the wake of Michael will keep the potential for MVFR ceilings across the region this morning before drying begins in earnest this afternoon behind a cold front. Otherwise, VFR in a developing west to northwest breeze. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will steadily improve today as the local pressure gradient relaxes in the wake of Michael and a cool front transits the waters. Will continue to carry an exercise caution headline over the offshore Gulf waters through late this morning, otherwise, no headlines needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will gradually spread acros the area this afternoon through the weekend. Moderate northwest surface flow today will become weaken Friday through the Weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Please refer to the latest River Flood Warnings and Flood Statements for the most up-to-date information. && .PREV DISCUSSION [415 AM EDT]... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]... Zonal flow aloft expected during this period. At the surface, high pressure will be centered northwest of forecast area Friday, moving east to the north of the area Saturday. Latest guidance spreads drier air across the area through this period, producing more pleasant conditions. Did not change much from prior forecast. .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... No changes made to long term given very active near term period. A dry stretch of weather with seasonal temperatures for mid October is forecast to continue at least through the weekend. For Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower activity during this period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 57 82 55 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 Panama City 88 59 81 60 81 / 10 10 0 0 0 Dothan 85 53 78 54 79 / 10 10 0 0 0 Albany 86 54 79 54 80 / 10 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 57 82 55 83 / 10 10 0 0 0 Cross City 91 63 86 57 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 87 61 81 60 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ Ulrich