174 FXUS62 KTAE 110815 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 415 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Will update forecast shortly to remove tropical storm warning with 5am NHC advisory. && .MARINE... Will update forecast shortly to remove tropical storm warning with 5am NHC advisory. Winds/seas expected to decrease to exercise caution level Today for offshore waters. && .PREV DISCUSSION [306 AM EDT]... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]... Zonal flow aloft expected during this period. At the surface, high pressure will be centered northwest of forecast area Friday, moving east to the north of the area Saturday. Latest guidance spreads drier air across the area through this period, producing more pleasant conditions. Did not change much from prior forecast. .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... No changes made to long term given very active near term period. A dry stretch of weather with seasonal temperatures for mid October is forecast to continue at least through the weekend. For Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower activity during this period. .AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]... A few areas of MVFR CIGs through early morning...otherwise VFR conditions expected Today. Moderate NW flow at the surface is expected. .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will gradually spread acros the area this afternoon through the Weekend. Moderate northwest surface flow Today will become lighter Friday through the Weekend. .HYDROLOGY... At this time, flood warnings are in effect for portions of the Chipola, Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and St. Marks Rivers. Despite current river conditions below normal levels, with the forecast rainfall, expect additional river basins to rise above flood stage. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 59 82 55 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 Panama City 89 61 81 60 81 / 10 10 0 0 0 Dothan 86 54 78 54 79 / 10 10 0 0 0 Albany 87 55 79 54 80 / 10 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 60 82 55 83 / 10 10 0 0 0 Cross City 90 65 86 57 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 87 64 81 60 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ Wolf