639 FXUS62 KTAE 110706 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 306 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Tropical Storm Michael is presently located over eastern GA, moving steadily northeastward away from our area. Conditions will continue to improve through dawn. Cloudiness is expected to decrease from W to E during the afternoon. A very warm day expected with near 90 temperatures and dew points in the lower 70s supporting heat index values in the 90s that will lead to discomfort for those without power. Latest guidance suggests drier air at the surface, currently seen across MS/LA will start spreading across forecast area during the afternoon. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]... Zonal flow aloft expected during this period. At the surface, high pressure will be centered northwest of forecast area Friday, moving east to the north of the area Saturday. Latest guidance spreads drier air across the area through this period, producing more pleasant conditions. Did not change much from prior forecast. .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... No changes made to long term given very active near term period. A dry stretch of weather with seasonal temperatures for mid October is forecast to continue at least through the weekend. For Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower activity during this period. && .AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]... A few areas of MVFR CIGs through early morning...otherwise VFR conditions expected Today. Moderate NW flow at the surface is expected. && .MARINE... Will likely be updating CWF with the next NHC advisory to replace tropical storm warning with exercise caution conditions for Today. Moderate N to NW flow through Saturday, shifts to an easterly direction Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure builds well N of the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will gradually spread acros the area this afternoon through the Weekend. Moderate northwest surface flow Today will become lighter Friday through the Weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... At this time, flood warnings are in effect for portions of the Chipola, Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and St. Marks Rivers. Despite current river conditions below normal levels, with the forecast rainfall, expect additional river basins to rise above flood stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 59 82 55 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 Panama City 89 61 81 60 81 / 10 10 0 0 0 Dothan 86 54 78 54 79 / 10 10 0 0 0 Albany 87 55 79 54 80 / 10 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 60 82 55 83 / 10 10 0 0 0 Cross City 90 65 86 57 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 87 64 81 60 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Tropical Storm Warning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun- Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin- Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph- Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...None. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Wolf