984 FXUS62 KTAE 102302 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 702 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...Powerful Hurricane Michael Will Continue to Bring Dangerous and Life-Threatening Conditions To The Area This Evening... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... As noted in our most recent Hurricane Local Statement, powerful Hurricane Michael remains a serious threat over southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia! Hurricane force winds are likely across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia as the center of Michael passes through these areas this evening. This will cause numerous power outages due to falling trees and powerlines. Trees falling on homes will become a dangerous and potentially deadly situation! Now is the time to shelter in place in an interior room away from windows at the lowest level possible. Elsewhere across the Panhandle and Big Bend, where winds and rain have started to diminished, the threat is not over! Tropical storm force wind gusts are likely to continue for the next several hours particularly along the coastal interface. Remain in a safe place and do not try to enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear to return. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]... In the wake of the departing hurricane, Thursday will be hot and very humid with heat indices approaching 100 degrees, especially over the Florida zones. This will be very uncomfortable particularly for those residents who are without power due to Hurricane Michael. Some relief will arrive Thursday night and Friday as a the first cold front of this fall season sweeps through the region. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 80s to around 90 with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 70s northwest to mid 80s southeast. Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast. .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... A dry stretch of weather with seasonal temperatures for mid October is forecast to continue at least through the weekend. For Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower activity during this period. && .AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]... Dangerous conditions continue in the vicinity and wake of Hurricane Michael. As Michael continues to pull away, widespread MVFR stratus is expected to develop and linger, particularly across our eastern aerodromes (KABY/KVLD). Ceilings expected to lift tomorrow as slightly drier advects in from the northwest. && .MARINE... Dangerous Hurricane Michael continues to move inland over the panhandle and will produce very hazardous conditions over the coastal waters through tonight. Conditions will improve Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hurricane Michael will continue to push into southeastern Georgia and weaken as it moves to the Carolinas Thursday and off the mid Atlantic coast Friday. A breezy and moist southerly flow will keep a chance of showers and slight chance of storms in the forecast through Thursday, then a weak frontal trough will bring drying to northern and central sections into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are possible along the track of Michael as it continues into southeastern Georgia. At this time, flood warnings are in effect for portions of the Chipola, Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and St. Marks Rivers. Despite current river conditions below normal levels, with the forecast rainfall, expect additional river basins to rise above flood stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 89 59 82 55 / 100 20 10 0 0 Panama City 74 89 61 81 60 / 70 20 10 0 0 Dothan 73 86 54 78 54 / 100 20 0 0 0 Albany 73 87 55 79 54 / 100 50 10 0 0 Valdosta 76 88 60 82 55 / 100 30 10 0 0 Cross City 78 90 65 86 57 / 90 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 77 87 64 81 60 / 70 20 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Hurricane Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson- Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. Tropical Storm Warning for Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette- Madison. GA...Hurricane Warning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay- Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph- Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. Tropical Storm Warning for Lanier-Lowndes. AL...Hurricane Warning for Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee. GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Ulrich/Peterson/Enyedi