892 FXUS62 KTAE 100830 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 430 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR THE WESTERN BIG BEND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM OF UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH FOR THIS AREA... ...THE TIME TO PREPARE IS ENDING AND BE PREPARED TO SHELTER IN PLACE FOR A LONG DURATION OF TIME... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Key Points... 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane along the Florida Panhandle or western Big Bend today as a storm of unprecedented strength for this area. Conditions will continue deteriorating through this afternoon and evening. 2. The greatest threats include the danger of life threatening storm surge along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastlines and damaging winds that will result in widespread power outages that may last days to even more than a week in some areas. In addition, river flooding and flash flooding and a few tornadoes are expected. 3. The time to prepare is ending. Be prepared to shelter in place for a long duration of time. As winds increase or a Tornado Warning is issued be prepared to get to a small interior room away from outside walls. Today and tonight is when the greatest, catastrophic impacts from Hurricane Michael will be felt across the area. Michael is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle or western Big Bend this afternoon. Based on historical data, a hurricane of this strength has NEVER made landfall in this region and thus this is an event that will have unprecedented impacts. Bands from Hurricane Michael are already moving onshore. Be prepared for tornadoes in these outerbands and have a safe interior room to go when when either a Tornado Warning is issued or the devestating winds from Michael move onshore. Life threatening storm surge, downed trees and power lines causing widespread and long lasting power outages, structural damage impacting homes and businesses, river flooding and flash flooding, and a few tornadoes are all expected. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]... In the wake of the departing hurricane, Thursday will be hot and very humid with heat indices approaching 100 degrees, especially over the Florida zones. This will be very uncomfortable particularly for those residents who are without power due to Hurricane Michael. Some relief will arrive Thursday night and Friday as a the first cold front of this fall season sweeps through the region. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 80s to around 90 with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 70s northwest to mid 80s southeast. Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast. .LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... A dry stretch of weather with seasonal temperatures for mid October is forecast to continue at least through the weekend. For Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower activity during this period. && .AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]... Conditions will deteriorate from south to north across area terminals this morning into the afternoon today as Hurricane Michael moves closer to the panhandle coast. Winds will increase with lowering ceilings and bands of convection moving onshore today with gradual improvement late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... Hurricane Michael is expected to have a major impact on the area. Hurricane conditions are expected with the worst conditions today and tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Aside from high dispersion values today, there are no other fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Given the track and intensity of Hurricane Michael, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are possible. The highest of these totals will be in the Florida panhandle and western Big Bend counties along and to the east of the track of Michael. These rainfall amounts will result in flash flooding. At this time, flood warnings are in effect for portions of the Chipola, Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and St. Marks Rivers. Despite current river conditions below normal levels, with the forecast rainfall, expect additional river basins to rise above flood stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 79 76 89 59 82 / 100 100 20 10 0 Panama City 79 74 89 61 81 / 100 70 20 10 0 Dothan 78 73 86 54 78 / 100 100 20 0 0 Albany 83 73 87 55 79 / 100 100 50 10 0 Valdosta 84 76 88 60 82 / 90 100 30 10 0 Cross City 83 78 90 65 86 / 90 90 20 10 0 Apalachicola 81 77 87 64 81 / 100 70 20 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Hurricane Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson- Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. Tropical Storm Warning for Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette- Madison. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Hurricane Warning for Baker-Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas- Worth. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph- Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. Tropical Storm Warning for Ben Hill-Berrien-Clay-Cook-Irwin- Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-Turner. Hurricane Watch for Clay-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell. AL...Hurricane Warning for Geneva-Houston. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Dale-Henry. Hurricane Watch for Coffee-Dale-Henry. GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...LN SHORT TERM...Barry LONG TERM...Barry AVIATION...LN MARINE...Barry FIRE WEATHER...Barry HYDROLOGY...LN