963 FXUS62 KTAE 092026 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 426 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...HURRICANE PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED TODAY... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]... Key Points... 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane along the Florida Panhandle or western Big Bend on Wednesday. Conditions will begin to deteriorate late tonight into early Wednesday. 2. The greatest threats include the danger of life threatening storm surge along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastlines and damaging winds that will result in widespread power outages that may last days to even more than a week in some areas. In addition, localized flash flooding and a few tornadoes are possible. 3. With evacuation orders in effect, follow the guidance of local emergency management and evacuate if told to do so. The Wednesday and Wednesday night time frame is when the greatest impacts (potentially catastrophic) from Hurricane Michael will be felt across the area. Michael continues to strengthen as it moves northward and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall. Life threatening storm surge, downed trees and power lines causing widespread and long lasting power outages, structural damage impacting homes and businesses, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding are all expected. Your hurricane preparations should be completed today. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... A dry stretch of weather is forecast Friday through Sunday, along with a cooler and drier air mass. Temperatures will be more seasonable with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. For Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower activity during this period. && .AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]... Conditions will start to deteriorate late tonight into Wednesday as Hurricane Michael moves closer to the area. Winds will increase through the period with lowering ceilings and bands of convection starting to move onshore close to dawn. && .MARINE... Hurricane Michael is expected to have a major impact on the area. Hurricane conditions are expected with the worst conditions expected on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Given the track and intensity of Hurricane Michael, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are possible. The highest of these totals will be in the Florida panhandle and western Big Bend counties along and to the east of the track of Michael. These rainfall amounts will result in flash flooding. Current river conditions are below normal levels. With the anticipated rainfall, expect some of our river basins to rise above flood stage. This appears most likely in the Ochlockonee River basin, where there's potential that a couple of sites reach near moderate flood levels. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 79 76 88 62 / 40 100 90 30 20 Panama City 76 79 75 87 62 / 70 100 80 30 10 Dothan 74 78 73 84 57 / 20 100 80 30 10 Albany 75 83 75 85 59 / 20 100 90 60 20 Valdosta 75 84 76 86 63 / 20 90 90 50 20 Cross City 77 83 78 88 68 / 30 90 90 50 20 Apalachicola 78 81 77 86 65 / 80 100 80 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Hurricane Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson- Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. Tropical Storm Warning for Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette- Madison. Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty- North Walton-South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Hurricane Warning for Baker-Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas- Worth. Tropical Storm Warning for Ben Hill-Berrien-Clay-Cook-Irwin- Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-Turner. Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. Hurricane Watch for Clay-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell. AL...Hurricane Warning for Geneva-Houston. Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Dale-Henry. Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Hurricane Watch for Coffee-Dale-Henry. GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...DVD MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD