571 FXUS65 KSLC 102211 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 411 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS...The upper level low pressure system over extreme southern Wyoming will continue east away from the forecast area tonight. A second weather disturbance will reach Utah Thursday, followed a third system approaching from the north late Saturday. && .SHORT TERM (Until 00Z Sunday)...The upper low moving east across southern Wyoming has left a cold and rather moist air mass in it's wake across northern Utah this afternoon. Lingering showers across the northern mountains will gradually dissipate this evening, with lower clouds decreasing later tonight. Fairly cold temps are expected, though lingering cloud cover will keep readings from plunging overnight. The vorticity max currently along the central California coast will take a turn to the east this evening, reaching southern Utah on Thursday. Warm advection out ahead of this feature will bring an increase in clouds later tonight with light precip develop as a result of the thermal advection and terrain upglide late tonight through early Thursday. Dynamic support for lift from the vorticity max does not look to be all that strong as this feature will be weakening a bit as it track east across far southern Utah. Will show some increase in areal coverage with the vorticity max, but will hold off on significant QPFs in the forecast at this time. Up north the upper trough moving east-southeast across the northern Rockies will graze far northern and northeast Utah late Thursday through Thursday evening. This dynamic feature along with sufficient residual moisture should produce areas of mostly light terrain-tied precip across northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming. Building heights from the west should bring a day or two of dry conditions to the forecast beginning Friday. The next shortwave cresting the dominant eastern Pacific upper ridge will dive southeast across western Canada and into the northern Rockies Saturday. This shortwave will strengthen as it tracks along the continental divide Saturday. Current timing would put this feature in the northern edge of the forecast area at the end of the short term forecast period late Saturday. .LONG TERM (After 00Z Sunday)...After a very active start to October, much of the long term forecast period transitions to a drier and warmer pattern. To start, a shortwave will be digging southeastward across Idaho and into Utah overnight Saturday into Sunday. This will bring the coldest airmass of the fall into portions of Utah with 700mb temperatures nearing -10C for a portion of the CWA. Monday morning may bring frost and/or a hard freeze to many valley locations in Utah...so it may be time to get the gardens ready for winter. Much of the global guidance develops a cut-off low across southern Arizona/northern Mexico midweek which may bring clouds and/or light precipitation Wednesday into Thursday into far southern Utah. Otherwise...warming and dry after Sunday for much of Utah. && .AVIATION...MVFR cigs are expected to persist at the KSLC terminal through 00-01z this evening prior to thinning and lifting. Cigs are expected to remain sub 6000ft AGL through 03-04z this evening before largely lifting above mountain crest level. Light and variable to light northwest winds will remain in place through 03z prior to returning to a light southeast for the overnight hours. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CONGER LONG TERM...KRUSE AVIATION...MERRILL For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php