403 
FXUS64 KSJT 111153
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
653 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across most of the terminals
the next 24 hours. Expect a mid cloud deck across the area 
today, lowering to around 5K feet this evening. Ceilings are 
expected to lower to MVFR at KSOA this evening and at KABI 
late tonight. A few showers will be possible mainly near
KABI and KSJT after midnight and will include VCSH at both 
terminals after 09Z. Winds will remain light through the
period. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight) 

A cool fall day is in store for West Central Texas today, with light 
winds and afternoon highs ranging from near 70 degrees across the 
Big Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. A weak 
disturbance will approach from the west later this afternoon. Ahead 
of this feature we'll see increasing clouds from west to east as the 
day progresses. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm 
may develop over southwest sections late this afternoon, then a few 
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly across 
northern sections overnight. Precipitation is expected to be light 
through tonight, with most areas seeing 1/10 inch or less. 
Temperatures will be warmer tonight due to extensive cloud cover, 
with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. 

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)

Models continue to indicate changes in the forecast for this 
weekend and into next week. The remnants of a tropical system 
(Sergio) may move across El Paso and then on into North Texas and 
Oklahoma over the course of Friday night and Saturday. Some 
afternoon thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, but the activity
associated with this disturbance will mark the beginning of a 
period of potentially heavy rainfall. 

Another period of potentially heavy rainfall may redevelop Sunday
afternoon into Monday. An upper level trough developing over New
Mexico could bring the needed lift to develop showers and
thunderstorms. This is in addition to a cold frontal passage on
Sunday as well, which will help provide some of the needed lift.
Temperatures may be much cooler on Monday with highs only getting
into the upper 40s across the Big Country and the lower 50s 
elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  60  76  57 /   5  20  40  60 
San Angelo  75  62  79  61 /  10  20  40  60 
Junction  77  62  79  66 /   5  10  30  50 
Brownwood  73  59  77  60 /   0  10  40  60 
Sweetwater  69  59  77  57 /  10  30  30  60 
Ozona       73  63  75  64 /  20  20  30  50 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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