717 FXUS64 KSJT 091729 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Heavy rain has moved out of the region, so the Flash Flood Watch for the rest of our forecast area has been cancelled. W/W/A section updated. && .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Rain over extreme eastern parts of the forecast area should continue to move east out of the area through 19Z. Patchy MVFR and TEMPO IFR CIGs in the Big Country and the Heartland should become VFR by 20Z. After that, primarily VFR conditions will continue through 18Z Wed, with just the slight chance of localized fog around 08Z-15Z Wed in the valleys and near lakes/rivers. However, confidence too low to include in TAFs. Winds mostly less than 10 KT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ A large area of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the area this morning. This area of convection will continue to impact the terminals through the next several hours before moving off to the east by this afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will lift to VFR by the mid afternoon as drier air filters into the area. VFR conditions are then expected tonight as a dry airmass settles into the region. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) An ongoing line of thunderstorms west of an Ozona to San Angelo to Abilene line at 345 AM will continue to push towards the east over the next few hours. Heavy rainfall is the main concern since there is high runoff potential combined with high rain rates, especially across Kimble County. Other concerns include damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado. This activity will eventually move across the entire area and off to the east towards central and eastern Texas by the afternoon hours. Drier conditions should persist for tonight with low temperatures around the low to mid 50s. LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) The long term outlook will start out dry before another round of rain is possible for the end of this week and into the weekend. Wednesday appears to be the only day without some sort of rain chances giving the region a quick chance to dry out a bit. However, as a trough and the remnants of a tropic disturbance (Sergio) moves into and across the Desert Southwest, rain chances increase yet again. Chances remain low due to uncertainty in the track of both of these systems. It appears as though a strong cold front may pass through the region over the weekend bringing cooler temperatures to the area as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 52 71 51 73 / 10 0 0 10 San Angelo 54 77 54 78 / 10 0 0 20 Junction 57 81 57 79 / 10 0 5 10 Brownwood 55 74 52 76 / 5 0 0 5 Sweetwater 51 71 53 73 / 10 5 0 20 Ozona 53 78 55 79 / 5 0 5 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 41/99/88 251 FXUS64 KSJT 091729 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Heavy rain has moved out of the region, so the Flash Flood Watch for the rest of our forecast area has been cancelled. W/W/A section updated. && .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Rain over extreme eastern parts of the forecast area should continue to move east out of the area through 19Z. Patchy MVFR and TEMPO IFR CIGs in the Big Country and the Heartland should become VFR by 20Z. After that, primarily VFR conditions will continue through 18Z Wed, with just the slight chance of localized fog around 08Z-15Z Wed in the valleys and near lakes/rivers. However, confidence too low to include in TAFs. Winds mostly less than 10 KT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ A large area of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the area this morning. This area of convection will continue to impact the terminals through the next several hours before moving off to the east by this afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will lift to VFR by the mid afternoon as drier air filters into the area. VFR conditions are then expected tonight as a dry airmass settles into the region. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) An ongoing line of thunderstorms west of an Ozona to San Angelo to Abilene line at 345 AM will continue to push towards the east over the next few hours. Heavy rainfall is the main concern since there is high runoff potential combined with high rain rates, especially across Kimble County. Other concerns include damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado. This activity will eventually move across the entire area and off to the east towards central and eastern Texas by the afternoon hours. Drier conditions should persist for tonight with low temperatures around the low to mid 50s. LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) The long term outlook will start out dry before another round of rain is possible for the end of this week and into the weekend. Wednesday appears to be the only day without some sort of rain chances giving the region a quick chance to dry out a bit. However, as a trough and the remnants of a tropic disturbance (Sergio) moves into and across the Desert Southwest, rain chances increase yet again. Chances remain low due to uncertainty in the track of both of these systems. It appears as though a strong cold front may pass through the region over the weekend bringing cooler temperatures to the area as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 52 71 51 73 / 10 0 0 10 San Angelo 54 77 54 78 / 10 0 0 20 Junction 57 81 57 79 / 10 0 5 10 Brownwood 55 74 52 76 / 5 0 0 5 Sweetwater 51 71 53 73 / 10 5 0 20 Ozona 53 78 55 79 / 5 0 5 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 41/99/88