959 
FXUS64 KSHV 102337
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
637 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 10/00Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR for the sites 
across the Four State Region under the influence of high pressure
on the surface and a nearly zonal flow aloft with little moisture.
Surface winds will be light Northwest to North less than 7 knots 
overnight and pick back up during the day to North to Northeast
7-12 knots. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/

The first autumn cold front of the season moved across the region
today with lgt nw winds and clearing skies. Temperatures will 
fall quickly tonight, with overnight lows mainly down into the 
50s. Daytime highs on Thursday will range from around 70 North to 
the upper 70s South, with sunny skies and n-ne winds around 10 
mph. Overnight low temperatures Thursday night falling into 50s 
again with upper 40s possible North of Interstate 30 under good 
radiational cooling conditions. /07/


LONG TERM.../Friday Morning through Tuesday Night/

An upper-trough across the Plains will allow for sufficient 
instability to generate showers across the I-30 corridor on Friday. 
Cool surface high pressure in place will allow for afternoon high 
temperatures to range from the mid 60s across the Ozarks to the 
upper 70s across the lakes region of deep east Texas. Overnight low 
temperatures on Friday night to drop into the mid to upper 50s. 

On Saturday, the remnants of Hurricane Sergio from the Eastern 
Pacific will move across the Red River valley. Surface low combined 
with weak upper-trough will allow for widespread showers with 
isolated thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma, southwest 
Arkansas, and northeast Texas. Surface low will combine with a cold 
front, which will extend precipitation into the I-20 corridor and 
areas southward on Saturday night into Sunday.  Model disagreement 
concerning the timing and precip coverage from Sunday into Monday 
introduces uncertainty into the forecast. For this forecast went 
with scattered pops through Monday, mainly from weak post-frontal 
forcing combined with a longwave upper-trough.  High pressure 
rebuilding behind the front will allow for cool and dry conditions 
on Tuesday and Wednesday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  76  52  75 /   0   0   0  10 
MLU  55  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  49  72  48  68 /   0   0   0  20 
TXK  52  73  50  70 /   0   0   0  20 
ELD  52  73  49  72 /   0   0   0  10 
TYR  54  75  54  76 /   0   0   0  20 
GGG  54  75  52  75 /   0   0   0  10 
LFK  56  78  55  79 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/07/05