823 FXUS64 KSHV 101829 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Reran the zone and rec fcst to remove wording of any precip across eastern zones and to reflect the decrease in cloud cover./07/. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ AVIATION... Clouds beginning to scatter out with vfr conditions expected areawide by 10/19-20z. By later this aftn vfr skc thru remainder of 11/18z fcst cycle. NW winds around 10 kts this aftn becmg ne 5 to 10 kts Thu mrng./07/. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1117 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ UPDATE... Clouds cover hanging around thru midday across much of the area, slightly limiting daytime htg. Expect aftn highs to range through the 70s most of the area, with some readings topping 80 degrees across southern portions of the area. Patchy very lgt rain may accompany frontal passage as it continues movg thru northern LA thru midday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/ The last of the more widespread convection is currently exiting our eastern most zones attm. However, some lighter showers continue developing across Deep East Texas and this activity per latest HRRR output will be moving northeastward into Northwest Louisiana and perhaps, portions of Southern Arkansas this morning before much drier air in the wake of a cold front will shunt all this moisture eastward later today. Speaking of the cold front, as of 07z, this boundary was located near a TSA...ADM...DFW...BWD line and will continue to make good southeastward progress today. Looking as some patchy dense fog just out ahead of this boundary early this morning so have added this weather element in the grids for the pre/post dawn hours this morning but this should be short lived. Much cooler, drier air will continue to spread into our region from the north and west for the afternoon hours and the effects of this cooler/drier air will really be felt overnight with lows mostly in the 50s with some 40s possible across SW AR into SE OK across the more protected areas. After a much cooler start to Wed Night/Thu Morning, daytime highs on Thursday will reach the 70s areawide with beautiful conditions in store. 13 LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday Night/ An active weather pattern is expected for much of the long term period. An upper trough moving across the Northern Plains and towards the Great Lakes may help to develop showers and thunderstorms along a surface trough over Oklahoma and Texas. There is a slight chance that some of this activity may affect areas along and north of the Interstate 30 corridor late Friday. However, a weak upper ridge over the Western Gulf of Mexico may provide enough influence to keep the area dry. On Saturday, the remnants of Hurricane Sergio from the Eastern Pacific will move across the Southern Plains. At the same time, a large upper trough will move east across the Northern CONUS helping to push a cold front southeast towards the area. Model guidance remains very consistent in forecasting a large area of convection across the Southern Plains and into the ArkLaTex on Saturday and especially along the frontal boundary on Sunday and into Monday. Medium range models still show significant disagreement with timing and which features will be the main rain producers. The ECMWF continues to be 18 to 24 hours slower and considerably wetter with the cold front than the GFS, which has most of the precip with the remnants of Sergio and moves precip completely out of the forecast area by 12z Monday. Both models suggest the primary upper trough axis will be positively-tilted, which should favor the slower timing. Thus, I'm still favoring the ECMWF over the GFS. PoPs were increased late Sunday and into Monday. Dry weather should return for Tuesday. There will be quite a range of temperatures across the area due to the effects of precipitation, especially during the daytime hours. Much of the area south of Interstate 30 should gradually warm until the cold front arrives late Sunday or Monday. Daytime highs may warm into the mid 80s in our southernmost counties and parishes of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana Sunday afternoon. With the widespread rain and the cold air behind the front, temperatures will be considerably cooler Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows Monday night/Tuesday morning should range from the low 40s to near 50 degrees F in most locations. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 79 54 77 53 / 20 0 0 0 MLU 82 55 77 51 / 40 0 0 0 DEQ 72 46 70 50 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 74 52 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 80 48 74 51 / 30 0 0 0 TYR 72 53 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 76 53 75 54 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 79 55 79 56 / 20 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$