873 FXUS64 KSHV 100246 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 946 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE.../Tonight/ What seems to be the main push of convection has conquered most of our area much earlier than previously expected. However, some of the higher-res models are indicating that redevelopment may occur later on as the cold front begins moving through our region. For this reason, have left PoPs in /with modification from the earlier update/ even over our wrn areas where convection has diminished significantly. As for temps, cooler air due to convection has led to temps falling below our previously fcst min temps, so a major overhaul of min temps was necessary for the update. No other significant changes appear to be needed attm. /12/ && AVIATION... Shwrs and intermittent tstms will continue through much of the 00Z TAF pd, as an upper trof and cold front approach. Low cigs/vsbys are likely to occur intermittently in vc or in the absence of convection, especially during the overnight hours. Cold front to move through generally from w to e from around sunrise through midday, with skc returning by the end of the pd. /12/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Scattered showers and isold tstms developed across the area with a few stgr tstms beginning to increase over lower ne TX. Heaviest rainfall potential and svr threat, mainly for damaging winds, durg the eve. However, rainfall to become more widespread with passage of cold front later tonight. Overnight lows will range from upper 60s to lower 70s on wet night. Rain to diminish from the west by early Wednesday with highs ranging through the 80s. As winds become light and skies clear later in the day, temperatures will plummet into the 50s with the first good taste of autumn air enters the picture, with a few upper 40s even possible across extreme northern portions of the region. /07/ LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/ Weak upper ridging across the Four State region to allow for mostly clear skies on Thursday. Additionally, with Canadian high pressure surging south in the wake of Michael, cool conditions can be expected with Thursday morning temperatures starting out in the low 50s to low 60s with afternoon highs in the 70s. As the surface high becomes better established on Thursday night, overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into lower 50s with portions of Southeast Oklahoma dipping into the upper 40s. Surface high pressure forecast to shift east on Friday ahead of the remnants of Hurricane Sergio from the Eastern Pacific. Increased moisture from this tropical system will move across the ArkLaTex on Saturday, bringing increased rain chances during the day into the overnight hours. Surface low will become absorbed in an eastward moving cold front on Sunday, allowing for lingering rain chances through Sunday night. Temperatures during the weekend to range from highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s to lows in the 50s. High pressure behind the front will maintain cool temperatures through early next week with daytime high temperatures on Monday averaging in the 60s and overnight lows Monday night/Tuesday morning possibly falling into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 83 56 77 / 100 30 0 0 MLU 72 87 58 78 / 90 40 0 0 DEQ 66 77 51 73 / 60 30 0 0 TXK 66 79 54 73 / 100 30 0 0 ELD 66 84 55 74 / 100 50 0 0 TYR 67 78 55 75 / 50 10 0 0 GGG 67 79 55 76 / 100 20 0 0 LFK 68 84 57 79 / 100 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 12/07/05