165 FXUS64 KSHV 092354 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 654 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ Line of marginally organized tstms continues to march ewd across the region this evening. Have increased PoPs to better cover what is expected within the next 6 hours or so. /12/ && .AVIATION... Shwrs and intermittent tstms will continue through much of the 00Z TAF pd, as an upper trof and cold front approach. Low cigs/vsbys are likely to occur intermittently in vc or in the absence of convection, especially during the overnight hours. Cold front to move through generally from w to e from around sunrise through midday, with skc returning by the end of the pd. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ SHORT TERM... Scattered showers and isold tstms developed across the area with a few stgr tstms beginning to increase over lower ne TX. Heaviest rainfall potential and svr threat, mainly for damaging winds, durg the eve. However, rainfall to become more widespread with passage of cold front later tonight. Overnight lows will range from upper 60s to lower 70s on wet night. Rain to diminish from the west by early Wednesday with highs ranging through the 80s. As winds become light and skies clear later in the day, temperatures will plummet into the 50s with the first good taste of autumn air enters the picture, with a few upper 40s even possible across extreme northern portions of the region./07/. LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/ Weak upper ridging across the Four State region to allow for mostly clear skies on Thursday. Additionally, with Canadian high pressure surging south in the wake of Michael, cool conditions can be expected with Thursday morning temperatures starting out in the low 50s to low 60s with afternoon highs in the 70s. As the surface high becomes better established on Thursday night, overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into lower 50s with portions of Southeast Oklahoma dipping into the upper 40s. Surface high pressure forecast to shift east on Friday ahead of the remnants of Hurricane Sergio from the Eastern Pacific. Increased moisture from this tropical system will move across the ArkLaTex on Saturday, bringing increased rain chances during the day into the overnight hours. Surface low will become absorbed in an eastward moving cold front on Sunday, allowing for lingering rain chances through Sunday night. Temperatures during the weekend to range from highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s to lows in the 50s. High pressure behind the front will maintain cool temperatures through early next week with daytime high temperatures on Monday averaging in the 60s and overnight lows Monday night/Tuesday morning possibly falling into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 83 72 83 56 / 50 80 30 0 MLU 89 74 87 58 / 40 70 40 0 DEQ 78 70 77 51 / 60 90 30 0 TXK 80 70 79 54 / 50 90 30 0 ELD 89 73 84 55 / 40 80 50 0 TYR 81 67 78 55 / 60 80 10 0 GGG 81 70 79 55 / 60 80 20 0 LFK 83 71 84 57 / 50 60 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 12/07/05