346 FXUS63 KSGF 111042 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 542 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Surface high pressure will continue to build east across the central Plains today resulting in dry conditions across the Missouri Ozarks. The one fly in the ointment will be a large area of stratus clouds that has developed and pushed southeast into the area overnight. While some of this cloud cover may hang on early this morning (especially along and just northwest of the Ozark Plateau), dry air advection and subsidence should eat away at the cloud deck early this morning. Well below normal temperatures are expected today as cold air advection continues. High temperatures will only warm into the middle 50s north of I-44 this afternoon. Areas of south-central Missouri may squeeze out highs in the low 60s as they benefit from downslope flow off the plateau. Short wave energy will then dig from the northern Rockies into the central Plains tonight. A low level jet will develop and induce isentropic upglide in the 290-300 K potential temperature layer across Kansas and northern Oklahoma...spreading into western Missouri after 06Z. We should therefore see an expansive area of light rain spread from west to east across much of the area. The eastern extent of the rain may very well get east of U.S. 65 by daybreak, especially across central Missouri where saturation in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere will be realized the soonest. Temperatures tonight will be interesting with clouds increasing from late this evening onward. Most locations should see a pretty quick drop in temperatures after dark. However, areas west of U.S. 65 should then see steady or rising temperatures later tonight until wet-bulbing drops them off again with precipitation onset. Lows will range from the upper 30s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower and middle 40s across western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 That short wave energy will dig across the middle and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Deep tropospheric ascent will result in continued rain across the region. Rain will then end from west to east from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Rainfall amounts will not be all that heavy with most areas averaging a tenth to a third of an inch. One other noteworthy item for Friday will be temperatures. We have gone on the cool side of guidance given the expected rain and thick clouds. Most areas will not warm out of the middle to upper 40s. The exception might be areas of the I-49 corridor and far southern Missouri. We will see a brief stretch of dry weather from later Friday night through most of Saturday. The remnants of tropical system Sergio will then get caught up in the westerlies and quickly progress east-northeast across the region late this weekend as upper level southwesterly flow deepens across the eastern two- thirds of the CONUS. This is a wet signal for the Ozarks with plenty of moisture, upper level lift, and a sharpening baroclinic zone. The prospects for rain therefore look high from Saturday night into Monday. The heaviest rainfall should remain just to our south, however we are still looking at many locations potentially receiving another 0.50" to 1.50" of rainfall. The other big story for this weekend and early next week will be temperatures and the potential for frost. Temperatures will remain well below normal through next Tuesday before a warm-up to near normal values by next Thursday. The first opportunity for frost may come as early as Saturday night across portions of central Missouri as lows fall into the middle 30s. The greater potential for frost (and perhaps a light freeze) over much of the area may then come Monday night as lows are expected to dip into the lower to middle 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 MVFR ceilings will dissipate throughout the morning with VFR expected by late morning. VFR is then expected from this afternoon into this evening. Surface winds will remain out of the northwest today at 5-10 knots. Clouds will then increase tonight as an upper level storm system approaches from the west. Light rain showers will be possible late tonight around Joplin and Springfield, however VFR is expected to prevail through 12Z. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Schaumann