955 
FXUS63 KSGF 110058
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
758 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The coldest air of the season has arrived to the Ozarks behind a 
robust upper-level trough, which is now lifting towards the Great
Lakes region in response to the Canadian air mass spreading 
south. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will slide into the 
Central Plains tonight. Temperatures will dip into the low-40s to 
upper- 30s overnight.

Big blue sky on Thursday as surface high pressure builds directly
over the western Ozarks and keeps the weather pattern dormant.
The high temperature spread for Thursday will range from the mid-
50s to lower-60s, which runs about 10 degrees cooler than normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Upper-level heights will decrease late Thursday night into Friday
as a trough digs into the Central Plains. Rain will commence from
west to east late Friday morning as a surface wave moves through 
the region. Despite impressive kinematics aloft, no mention of
thunder is in the forecast for Friday as instability will remain
nil in this cooler airmass.

The attention then turns to Saturday and Sunday as remnants of 
Tropical Storm Sergio, currently off the coast of Baja California,
get swept in the generally westerlies and moves through the 
southern Plains. Deterministic solutions still vary slightly on 
the exact track of this disturbance, but recent trends have the 
heaviest rain favoring Arkansas. A sharp precipitation gradient
may set up late Saturday into Sunday as this system moves through.

A model blend was used for late Sunday night into Monday as 
differences between the GFS and ECMWF exist. The GFS is more 
progressive in the upper- level flow while the ECMWF lags behind. 
If the GFS is right, a rigorous shot of cold air would account for 
the region's first frost Monday morning. If the ECMWF is right, rain 
and cloud cover will keep temperatures well above freezing.

Deterministic models come into better agreement late in the
forecast period, with high pressure yielding dry and seasonable
weather for the middle of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 757 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Flight conditions across the region will remain VFR through the
next 24 hours as high pressure moves over the area. Surface winds
will remain generally light and northeasterly. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albano/Wise
LONG TERM...Albano/Wise
AVIATION...Hatch