493 FXUS63 KSGF 102105 CCA AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 343 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The coldest air of the season has arrived to the Ozarks behind a robust upper-level trough, which is now lifting towards the Great Lakes region in response to the Canadian air mass spreading south. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will slide into the Central Plains tonight. Temperatures will dip into the low-40s to upper- 30s overnight. Big blue sky on Thursday as surface high pressure builds directly over the western Ozarks and keeps the weather pattern dormant. The high temperature spread for Thursday will range from the mid- 50s to lower-60s, which runs about 10 degrees cooler than normal. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Upper-level heights will decrease late Thursday night into Friday as a trough digs into the Central Plains. Rain will commence from west to east late Friday morning as a surface wave moves through the region. Despite impressive kinematics aloft, no mention of thunder is in the forecast for Friday as instability will remain nil in this cooler airmass. The attention then turns to Saturday and Sunday as remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio, currently off the coast of Baja California, get swept in the generally westerlies and moves through the southern Plains. Deterministic solutions still vary slightly on the exact track of this disturbance, but recent trends have the heaviest rain favoring Arkansas. A sharp precipitation gradient may set up late Saturday into Sunday as this system moves through. A model blend was used for late Sunday night into Monday as differences between the GFS and ECMWF exist. The GFS is more progressive in the upper- level flow while the ECMWF lags behind. If the GFS is right, a rigorous shot of cold air would account for the region's first frost Monday morning. If the ECMWF is right, rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures well above freezing. Deterministic models come into better agreement late in the forecast period, with high pressure yielding dry and seasonable weather for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Extensive post-frontal cloud coverage will linger through this afternoon. Thus, all terminals across southwest Missouri will remain in MVFR conditions with ceilings generally below 3kft. Low-level clouds will begin to clear this evening as cooler, drier air settles into the region. VFR conditions are expected overnight through the rest of the TAF period as surface high pressure dominates the weather pattern. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albano/Wise LONG TERM...Albano/Wise AVIATION...Albano/Wise