190 
FXUS63 KSGF 101047
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Looks like the cold front has pushed through Chanute, Parsons and
Coffeyville based on the wind shift at 07z and was just west of
the western CWA edge. Moisture and instability axis was well to
the east of the front in the far eastern CWA where mostly showers
and a few embedded storms continue. This activity may linger for a
couple more hours in the eastern counties of our CWA, but not much
more as the moist/instability axis shifts east. There are a few
very light echoes showing up on the radar with the cold front, but
at this point doesn't look like it would be anything that would
register much in the rain bucket. Have really backed off on pops
for the rest of the night behind the main band of showers in the
east, but did not completely remove the pops with the front.

Several more opportunities for precipitation will occur in the
seven day period along with a significant cool down from the
previous week. This will be the main focus in the upcoming seven
day forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

For today, should see the cold front advance east through the area
today with much drier air moving in behind the front and upper
wave. Any additional chance for showers will be out ahead of the
main upper wave and during the morning hours. Highest temperatures
today will be in the east with the front moving out of there the
latest. Highs will range from upper 50s west to upper 70s east
with lows tonight in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Surface high pressure will continue to drop southeast into the
area on Thursday which should keep things dry and cool. Highs 
from 55-64. On Thursday night, an upper level system will move
into the plains with some rainfall spreading east across Kansas
and possibly into our western CWA by 12z Fri. Lows will be cool in
the 37-44 degree range.  

The rainfall is expected to push east across the area during the
day Friday and exiting the eastern CWA on Friday evening. The cool
high pressure along with clouds/rain will keep chilly conditions
in place with highs only in the 50s and lows Friday night back in
the mid 30s to mid 40s.

As we head into late Saturday and Saturday night, the low
(formerly tropical system Sergio) will spread east into the
central U.S. Models still having issues with timing and placement
of the low which is affecting model qpf output. GFS is much faster
than the ECMWF or Canadian models. Needless to say, confidence is
on the lower side with respect to this weekends pops and qpf
compared to the Friday system.

Another system brings rainfall to the area in both the
GFS/Canadian solutions but not the ECMWF Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal into the first
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Surface front has pushed through JLN and will continue to track
east across the region today. A little bit of light rain will
accompany the fronal passage along with several hours of IFR
ceilings before clearing takes place later this afternoon. Should
be VFR thereafter as much drier air works into the area with
Canadian high pressure.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg