143 FXUS63 KSGF 100732 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 232 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Looks like the cold front has pushed through Chanute, Parsons and Coffeyville based on the wind shift at 07z and was just west of the western CWA edge. Moisture and instability axis was well to the east of the front in the far eastern CWA where mostly showers and a few embedded storms continue. This activity may linger for a couple more hours in the eastern counties of our CWA, but not much more as the moist/instability axis shifts east. There are a few very light echoes showing up on the radar with the cold front, but at this point doesn't look like it would be anything that would register much in the rain bucket. Have really backed off on pops for the rest of the night behind the main band of showers in the east, but did not completely remove the pops with the front. Several more opportunities for precipitation will occur in the seven day period along with a significant cool down from the previous week. This will be the main focus in the upcoming seven day forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 For today, should see the cold front advance east through the area today with much drier air moving in behind the front and upper wave. Any additional chance for showers will be out ahead of the main upper wave and during the morning hours. Highest temperatures today will be in the east with the front moving out of there the latest. Highs will range from upper 50s west to upper 70s east with lows tonight in the upper 30s to upper 40s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Surface high pressure will continue to drop southeast into the area on Thursday which should keep things dry and cool. Highs from 55-64. On Thursday night, an upper level system will move into the plains with some rainfall spreading east across Kansas and possibly into our western CWA by 12z Fri. Lows will be cool in the 37-44 degree range. The rainfall is expected to push east across the area during the day Friday and exiting the eastern CWA on Friday evening. The cool high pressure along with clouds/rain will keep chilly conditions in place with highs only in the 50s and lows Friday night back in the mid 30s to mid 40s. As we head into late Saturday and Saturday night, the low (formerly tropical system Sergio) will spread east into the central U.S. Models still having issues with timing and placement of the low which is affecting model qpf output. GFS is much faster than the ECMWF or Canadian models. Needless to say, confidence is on the lower side with respect to this weekends pops and qpf compared to the Friday system. Another system brings rainfall to the area in both the GFS/Canadian solutions but not the ECMWF Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal into the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 For the 06z TAFS, true cold front was still to the west in southeast Kansas as of 05z, but effective front with the showers and storms was well to the east across the eastern Ozarks, east of BBG and SGF. A few light echoes showing up along and slightly behind the front, so we have not completely eliminated pops for the overnight behind the main band of convection, but have lowered significantly. Will likely see lower ceilings develop behind the front in the MVFR and possibly some IFR conditions overnight. Winds should become westerly behind the front with temperatures and dewpoints dropping. VFR conditions are expected by the afternoon at the TAF sites. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg