105 
FXUS63 KSGF 100510
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

A line of storms is now spreading into far western Missouri this
afternoon. This line of storms will continue to track east across
the area into the evening hours. Deep layer shear has increased
as the upper level trough approaches from the west. MLCAPE values
are in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range ahead of the line. O-3km shear
vectors are to the north to northeast at 30 to 35kt. Theta-E
difference also have increased with the heating of the day. This
will all result in the potential for severe wind gusts with the
most intense portions of the line as it spreads east. Any surges
to the north to northeast will be supportive of mesovort develop
and the potential for a few spin up tornadoes with in the line.
The line of storms will be near Highway 65 corridor between 4 and
6 pm and will spread east of the area by late this evening. 

The cold front will spread across the area late this evening into
Wednesday morning. Showers and maybe a few storms will be 
possible on the front as it moves across the area.

A cooler airmass will start to spread into the area behind the
front and will result in highs ranging from the upper 50s across
southeastern Kansas to the low 70s across the eastern Ozarks on
Wednesday. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

A cooler airmass will spread into the area with highs generally in
the 50s expected Thursday into early next week. A reinforcing 
shot of cooler air will occur early next week. Highs on Monday may
struggle to warm into the lower 50s. Lows in the upper 30s into 
the 40s will occur each night. 

An upper level disturbance will spread across the area on Friday
and Friday night and may bring and few light showers across the
area. 

Another system may track across the region this weekend. Medium
range models continue to show inconsistencies on the exact track 
with this system and are trending farther and farther south which 
each run. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

For the 06z TAFS, true cold front was still to the west in
southeast Kansas as of 05z, but effective front with the showers
and storms was well to the east across the eastern Ozarks, east of
BBG and SGF. A few light echoes showing up along and slightly
behind the front, so we have not completely eliminated pops for
the overnight behind the main band of convection, but have lowered
significantly. Will likely see lower ceilings develop behind the
front in the MVFR and possibly some IFR conditions overnight.
Winds should become westerly behind the front with temperatures
and dewpoints dropping. VFR conditions are expected by the
afternoon at the TAF sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg