240 FXUS63 KSGF 091954 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 254 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A line of storms is now spreading into far western Missouri this afternoon. This line of storms will continue to track east across the area into the evening hours. Deep layer shear has increased as the upper level trough approaches from the west. MLCAPE values are in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range ahead of the line. O-3km shear vectors are to the north to northeast at 30 to 35kt. Theta-E difference also have increased with the heating of the day. This will all result in the potential for severe wind gusts with the most intense portions of the line as it spreads east. Any surges to the north to northeast will be supportive of mesovort develop and the potential for a few spin up tornadoes with in the line. The line of storms will be near Highway 65 corridor between 4 and 6 pm and will spread east of the area by late this evening. The cold front will spread across the area late this evening into Wednesday morning. Showers and maybe a few storms will be possible on the front as it moves across the area. A cooler airmass will start to spread into the area behind the front and will result in highs ranging from the upper 50s across southeastern Kansas to the low 70s across the eastern Ozarks on Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A cooler airmass will spread into the area with highs generally in the 50s expected Thursday into early next week. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will occur early next week. Highs on Monday may struggle to warm into the lower 50s. Lows in the upper 30s into the 40s will occur each night. An upper level disturbance will spread across the area on Friday and Friday night and may bring and few light showers across the area. Another system may track across the region this weekend. Medium range models continue to show inconsistencies on the exact track with this system and are trending farther and farther south which each run. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A few showers have developed across portions of the area early this afternoon, ahead of an approaching storm system. MVFR conditions will be possible within this activity. A line of storms in northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas will spread into the area this afternoon into this evening. Strong to severe winds will be possible with these storms, along with IFR conditions. A cold front will move through the area late this evening into the overnight hours. Additional showers and maybe a few storms will be possible along the front. Winds will become more west to northwesterly behind the front with MVFR ceilings possible. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Wise