598 FXUS61 KRLX 111038 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 638 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses today, and the remnants of Hurricane Michael pass to our south and east today and tonight. Cold fronts cross Friday night, and early next week, then high pressure mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM Thursday... Radar shows precipitation associated with cold front approaching from the west closing in on OH-WV border, and extending into eastern KY this morning. Ahead of front, in West Virginia, there are scattered pockets of showers and drizzle in moisture laden atmospheric column. Moisture will continue to stream northward along front as it is sheared off from Michael as it tracks south and east of our forecast area today. Short term models are keeping bulk of the moisture east of the Appalachians today. Our flash flood potential will be in the marginal category over the eastern half of WV. Some heavier downpours in tropical airmass could cause a few local water issues, especially over the eastern half of the forecast this afternoon as diurnal convective activity upticks. Cooled forecast max temps today from previous forecast as clouds, and influx of cooler air from frontal passage will be in play today. For tonight, atmospheric column will under go a cooling and drying trend. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 455 AM Thursday... High pressure beginning and end of period. In between, an upper level short wave trough drives a reinforcing surface cold front through the area Friday night. this is likely to bring showers, or rain, across the area overnight Friday night, as most of the precipitation will occur behind the front. As the system exits Saturday morning, there could actually be enough cold air for a few snow flakes over the highest ridges. Central guidance temperatures accepted, and below normal, especially on highs on Saturday. Frost is possible in the higher mountain valleys Sunday morning, and will continue to highlight in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 455 AM Thursday... Models are having some difficulty in transitioning to a PNA pattern, with troughiness over the central and eastern U.S., and ridging along the west coast. A chance for showers comes Sunday night, as a southern stream flat wave crosses. A northern stream short wave trough cuts across the Great Lakes on Monday, driving a surface cold front through the forecast area. A southern stream short wave trough crosses Monday night through Tuesday night, inducing a wave on the front, and extending the chance for rain. Another northern stream short wave trough then helps to kick out the southern stream trough on Wednesday, and culminate the transition to the PNA pattern. Surface high pressure builds in, with more cool, Canadian air, to close out the period. Models divergence increases next week, resulting in increasing uncertainty on timing and duration of the chance for rain. However, there is good agreement on high pressure at the end. Central guidance temperatures accepted, below normal after Sunday night, with frost possible midweek. Will continue to highlight the frost in the HWO. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 0635 AM Thursday... MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected this morning and into midday. Expect improving flight conditions as front tracks from east to west across the forecast area during the day. Have front along the Ohio River at about 15Z, and then along a KEKN-KBKW line at about 21Z. Mentioned VCTS and TSRA in the late morning as some convective activity may develop in diurnal heating. Behind the front, have a short period of stratcu in cold air advection. After 21Z, conditions will mostly improve to VFR across most of the forecast area. After frontal passage expect winds to become more northwesterly with flow around 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation may vary from current forecast. IFR cigs may be slower to clear than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L M M H L H L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H M L M M H H H H H L H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M M H H M H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR fog possible Friday through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...KMC