877 FXUS61 KRLX 110552 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 152 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts north tonight. Cold front arrives early Thursday morning, as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Colder airmass filters in Thursday night through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1250 AM Thursday... Noted shower activity over Pocahontas county streaming in on southeast flow. Most of the precipitation so far is remaining outside of forecast area, and short term models seem to suggest that this trend will continue for remainder of tonight. Cold front over IN and OH will continue its advance east, and additional moisture will continue to stream north across the southern coalfields ahead of approaching boundary. These trends are covered in current forecast, albeit the predicted upswing in PoPs may be a tad fast over the next couple of hours. Will hold fast to current forecast with no major updates in the offing. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A cold front and the remnants of Michael will pull off to the east Thursday night, allowing for much cooler air to move into the region. A high pressure system will build in briefly on Friday. An upper level trough will then push through late Friday night into Saturday, providing some light showers. Temperatures could be cold enough in the higher elevations of the mountains such that a few flurries are not out of the question for early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A warm front will push northward Sunday or Sunday night, followed by a strong cold front Monday or Monday night. Timing of these features remains a bit uncertain. Behind the system, expect a reinforcment of the cool fall weather for Tuesday. Models diverge even further for mid week with timing and strength of a moisture starved cold front && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 0150 AM Thursday... Generally MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected remainder of tonight and into mid day Thursday. Expect improving flight conditions as front tracks from east to west across the forecast area during the day. Have front along the Ohio River at about 15Z, and then along a KEKN-KBKW line at about 21Z. After 21Z, conditions will improve to VFR across most of the forecast area. After frontal passage expect winds to become more northwesterly with flow around 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation may vary from current forecast. IFR cigs may be slower to clear on Thursday than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/11/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H L H M H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H L M H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR fog possible Friday through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KMC