816 FXUS61 KRLX 110451 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1251 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts north tonight. Cold front arrives early Thursday morning, as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Colder airmass filters in Thursday night through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1250 AM Thursday... Noted shower activity over Pocahontas county streaming in on southeast flow. Most of the precipitation so far is remaining outside of forecast area, and short term models seem to suggest that this trend will continue for remainder of tonight. Cold front over IN and OH will continue its advance east, and additional moisture will continue to stream north across the southern coalfields ahead of approaching boundary. Thess trends are covered in current forecast, albeit the predicted upswing in PoPs may be a tad fast over the next couple of hours. Will hold fast to current forecast with no major updates in the offing. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A cold front and the remnants of Michael will pull off to the east Thursday night, allowing for much cooler air to move into the region. A high pressure system will build in briefly on Friday. An upper level trough will then push through late Friday night into Saturday, providing some light showers. Temperatures could be cold enough in the higher elevations of the mountains such that a few flurries are not out of the question for early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A warm front will push northward Sunday or Sunday night, followed by a strong cold front Monday or Monday night. Timing of these features remains a bit uncertain. Behind the system, expect a reinforcment of the cool fall weather for Tuesday. Models diverge even further for mid week with timing and strength of a moisture starved cold front && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM Wednesday... -shra continue across the mountains and northern WV, but will continue to lift north of the area through 03Z with a brief period of VFR most locations. However, precipitation will increase in coverage again particularly after 06Z Thursday with the arrival of a cold front from the west, and moisture from Michael, with widespread rain and isold tsra taking hold. Expect a gradual deterioration to widespread MVFR after 06Z, and widespread IFR/LIFR or worse after 10Z. After 16Z gradual improvement to VFR is expected across parts of southeast Ohio and northeast KY, but MVFR/IFR will continue to linger across much of WV and southwest VA through at least 21Z. Mountainous TAF sites are expected to remain MVFR with local IFR for the remainder of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation may vary from current forecast. IFR cigs may be slower to clear on Thursday than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/11/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H M H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L H M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M L H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L H M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR fog possible Friday through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL