376 FXUS61 KRLX 102336 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 736 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts north tonight. Cold front arrives early Thursday morning, as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Colder airmass filters in Thursday night through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 505 PM Wednesday... Tweaked pops for the rest of the evening based on current radar and hi res model trends. Otherwise, no major changes necessary at this time. As of 230 PM Wednesday... Areas of rain will continue to move north across extreme southwest VA, northeast KY, and most of WV through this evening. Although light rain could later tonight, models suggest a lull in pcpn at least across the lowlands this evening. Low PoPs coded for tonight. Boundary layer winds around 20 knots, and expected cloud cover will prevent dense fog development overnight. A sharp cold front will approach southeast OH by 12Z Thursday. Expect showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the cold front affecting most of our CWA on Thursday. Cold front will exit the eastern mountains around 00Z Friday. Behind the front, colder air will push in providing the first taste of Fall by Thursday night through the weekend, into next week. As the cold front affects our area, remnants of Michael will pass well south and east of our area, not affecting directly our CWA. Went with the NBM guidance for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A cold front and the remnants of Michael will pull off to the east Thursday night, allowing for much cooler air to move into the region. A high pressure system will build in briefly on Friday. An upper level trough will then push through late Friday night into Saturday, providing some light showers. Temperatures could be cold enough in the higher elevations of the mountains such that a few flurries are not out of the question for early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A warm front will push northward Sunday or Sunday night, followed by a strong cold front Monday or Monday night. Timing of these features remains a bit uncertain. Behind the system, expect a reinforcment of the cool fall weather for Tuesday. Models diverge even further for mid week with timing and strength of a moisture starved cold front && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM Wednesday... -shra continue across the mountains and northern WV, but will continue to lift north of the area through 03Z with a brief period of VFR most locations. However, precipitation will increase in coverage again particularly after 06Z Thursday with the arrival of a cold front from the west, and moisture from Michael, with widespread rain and isold tsra taking hold. Expect a gradual deterioration to widespread MVFR after 06Z, and widespread IFR/LIFR or worse after 10Z. After 16Z gradual improvement to VFR is expected across parts of southeast Ohio and northeast KY, but MVFR/IFR will continue to linger across much of WV and southwest VA through at least 21Z. Mountainous TAF sites are expected to remain MVFR with local IFR for the remainder of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation may vary from current forecast. IFR cigs may be slower to clear on Thursday than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR fog possible Friday through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL