669 FXUS61 KRLX 102104 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 504 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts north tonight. Cold front arrives early Thursday morning, as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Colder airmass filters in Thursday night through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 505 PM Wednesday... Tweaked pops for the rest of the evening based on current radar and hi res model trends. Otherwise, no major changes necessary at this time. As of 230 PM Wednesday... Areas of rain will continue to move north across extreme southwest VA, northeast KY, and most of WV through this evening. Although light rain could later tonight, models suggest a lull in pcpn at least across the lowlands this evening. Low PoPs coded for tonight. Boundary layer winds around 20 knots, and expected cloud cover will prevent dense fog development overnight. A sharp cold front will approach southeast OH by 12Z Thursday. Expect showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the cold front affecting most of our CWA on Thursday. Cold front will exit the eastern mountains around 00Z Friday. Behind the front, colder air will push in providing the first taste of Fall by Thursday night through the weekend, into next week. As the cold front affects our area, remnants of Michael will pass well south and east of our area, not affecting directly our CWA. Went with the NBM guidance for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A cold front and the remnants of Michael will pull off to the east Thursday night, allowing for much cooler air to move into the region. A high pressure system will build in briefly on Friday. An upper level trough will then push through late Friday night into Saturday, providing some light showers. Temperatures could be cold enough in the higher elevations of the mountains such that a few flurries are not out of the question for early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... A warm front will push northward Sunday or Sunday night, followed by a strong cold front Monday or Monday night. Timing of these features remains a bit uncertain. Behind the system, expect a reinforcment of the cool fall weather for Tuesday. Models diverge even further for mid week with timing and strength of a moisture starved cold front && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Moisture advection under southeast flow acting as a warm front, will continue spreading areas of rain as they move north through early this evening. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible along moderate rain. Hi-resolution models suggest that there will be a lull in pcpn activity this evening. However, synoptic models indicate that another round of showers will be possible during the predawn hours. Expect VFR/MVFR conditions deteriorating to IFR ceilings overnight. FROPA expected to reach southeast OH by 12Z Thursday, and spread showers and thunderstorms as it moves east across our CWA. Brief periods of IFR conditions will be possible along moderate showers or storms. Otherwise, MVFR conditions can be expected. Behind FROPA, periods of IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected under much cooler airmass. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Shower intensity and coverage may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR along showers or storms possible Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ