393 FXUS61 KRLX 101831 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 231 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lift north tonight. Cold front arrives early Thursday morning, as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Colder airmass filters in Thursday night through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Areas of rain will continue to move north across extreme southwest VA, northeast KY, and most of WV through this evening. Although light rain could later tonight, models suggest a lull in pcpn at least across the lowlands this evening. Low PoPs coded for tonight. Boundary layer winds around 20 knots, and expected cloud cover will prevent dense fog development overnight. A sharp cold front will approach southeast OH by 12Z Thursday. Expect showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the cold front affecting most of our CWA on Thursday. Cold front will exit the eastern mountains around 00Z Friday. Behind the front, colder air will push in providing the first taste of Fall by Thursday night through the weekend, into next week. As the cold front affects our area, remnants of Michael will pass well south and east of our area, not affecting directly our CWA. Went with the NBM guidance for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 505 AM Wednesday... Cold front moves through the area Thursday, even as its driving upper level short wave trough minors out as it lifts out into eastern Canada. In the meantime, the remnants of Michael, and heavy rainfall directly tied to it, track to the south and east of the area Thursday and Thursday night. However, moisture streaming out ahead of the system may impede upon the central Appalachians and the advancing front, enhancing rainfall amounts in and just west of the mountains Thursday. This could bring an additional half inch to an inch rainfall in and near the mountains Thursday. Drier, and much cooler air moves in behind the front Thursday night, and widespread 40s will be found throughout the area for the first time this season Friday morning. Highs Friday will be lower than lows have been recently, by some 5 to 10 degrees, or in the 50s for much of the area. Models are trending stronger with an upper level short wave that is progged to be much more effective in lowering heights over the eastern U.S. than its predecessor Friday and Saturday, and a surface reflection in the form of a reinforcing cold front is also shown. This brings an increasing chance for precipitation farther south, compared with previous runs, and raises the possibility for the first snow flakes pf the season on the highest ridges, with h85 temperatures progged to fall just below 0C. The system pulls out Saturday, but another very cool day is on tap, and frost is possible in the elevated mountain valleys Saturday night, as high pressure crosses. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 505 AM Wednesday... This period features a progressive pattern with upper level short wave troughs moving quickly across. Heights lean lowest over central and eastern portions of the U.S., varying as the short waves cross, as ridging builds along the west coast. This continues the welcome change to more seasonable weather for autumn, with temperatures below normal, especially on highs, the exception being above normal lows Monday ahead of the next front, but still nowhere near as warm as recent nights. The cold front brings the chance for showers Sunday through Monday, depending upon a possible wave along or ahead of it. High pressure crosses Tuesday. Guidance has come in a little cooler, so frost Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may occur even out across the lowlands, and h85 temperatures getting just below zero before moisture exits gives a narrow window of opportunity for a few snowflakes on the highest ridges. Will highlight the frost in the HWO. The next cold front may cross midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Moisture advection under southeast flow acting as a warm front, will continue spreading areas of rain as they move north through early this evening. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible along moderate rain. Hi-resolution models suggest that there will be a lull in pcpn activity this evening. However, synoptic models indicate that another round of showers will be possible during the predawn hours. Expect VFR/MVFR conditions deteriorating to IFR ceilings overnight. FROPA expected to reach southeast OH by 12Z Thursday, and spread showers and thunderstorms as it moves east across our CWA. Brief periods of IFR conditions will be possible along moderate showers or storms. Otherwise, MVFR conditions can be expected. Behind FROPA, periods of IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected under much cooler airmass. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Shower intensity and coverage may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR along showers or storms possible Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ