505 FXUS61 KRLX 101021 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 621 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... One last warm day today. Cold front crosses Thursday as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Much cooler in its wake for Friday and the weekend. Another cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Surface high pressure off the eastern seaboard will continue to erode and shift eastward. 5h trough digs into the midwest with surface front, and attendant low deepening across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, Michael will be lurking to our south. For our sensible weather we will see an influx of moisture along with increasing southeasterly flow as surface gradients increase over the next 24 hours. Chances for shower development increase in afternoon hours with weakly unstable conditions as models depict a plume of low level moisture moving across. As cold front approaches for the west overnight, precipitation chances will be on the increase. For temps, trimmed a couple degrees from previous forecast for daytime highs today as cloud cover will be on the increase despite the warm air advection that will be in place. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 505 AM Wednesday... Cold front moves through the area Thursday, even as its driving upper level short wave trough minors out as it lifts out into eastern Canada. In the meantime, the remnants of Michael, and heavy rainfall directly tied to it, track to the south and east of the area Thursday and Thursday night. However, moisture streaming out ahead of the system may impede upon the central Appalachians and the advancing front, enhancing rainfall amounts in and just west of the mountains Thursday. This could bring an additional half inch to an inch rainfall in and near the mountains Thursday. Drier, and much cooler air moves in behind the front Thursday night, and widespread 40s will be found throughout the area for the first time this season Friday morning. Highs Friday will be lower than lows have been recently, by some 5 to 10 degrees, or in the 50s for much of the area. Models are trending stronger with an upper level short wave that is progged to be much more effective in lowering heights over the eastern U.S. than its predecessor Friday and Saturday, and a surface reflection in the form of a reinforcing cold front is also shown. This brings an increasing chance for precipitation farther south, compared with previous runs, and raises the possibility for the first snow flakes pf the season on the highest ridges, with h85 temperatures progged to fall just below 0C. The system pulls out Saturday, but another very cool day is on tap, and frost is possible in the elevated mountain valleys Saturday night, as high pressure crosses. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 505 AM Wednesday... This period features a progressive pattern with upper level short wave troughs moving quickly across. Heights lean lowest over central and eastern portions of the U.S., varying as the short waves cross, as ridging builds along the west coast. This continues the welcome change to more seasonable weather for autumn, with temperatures below normal, especially on highs, the exception being above normal lows Monday ahead of the next front, but still nowhere near as warm as recent nights. The cold front brings the chance for showers Sunday through Monday, depending upon a possible wave along or ahead of it. High pressure crosses Tuesday. Guidance has come in a little cooler, so frost Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may occur even out across the lowlands, and h85 temperatures getting just below zero before moisture exits gives a narrow window of opportunity for a few snowflakes on the highest ridges. Will highlight the frost in the HWO. The next cold front may cross midweek. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 620 AM Wednesday... Mostly VFR conditions to start the period with some MVFR in stratcu in and along elevated mountain valleys vicinity of KBKW and KEKN. FG has been slow to develop over night, so cut back FG indications in the early morning period. However, noted a few river valleys may have some patchy fog as per latest channel difference sat imagery. Any FG should quickly clear later this morning. For today, gradients will remain tight with south to southeast breezes, especially across the southern coalfields. Moisture increases during the day with a couple of upper level systems moving in from the south, arriving in the southern mountains at BKW by 15Z with more widespread MVFR. Frontal passage tonight and more widespread MVFR can be expected. Also, convective showers will produce areas of IFR as well. After frontal passage late, expect a period of IFR cig and visby values by 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FG timing and shower intensity may vary late this afternoon and late tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR along showers or storms possible Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...KMC