498 FXUS61 KRLX 100806 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 406 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm through Wednesday. Cold front crosses Thursday as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Much cooler in its wake for Friday and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Surface high pressure off the eastern seaboard will continue to erode and shift eastward. 5h trough digs into the midwest with surface front, and attendant low deepening across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, Michael will be lurking to our south. For our sensible weather we will see an influx of moisture along with increasing southeasterly flow as surface gradients increase over the next 24 hours. Chances for shower development increase in afternoon hours with weakly unstable conditions as models depict a plume of low level moisture moving across. As cold front approaches for the west overnight, precipitation chances will be on the increase. For temps, trimmed a couple degrees from previous forecast for daytime highs today as cloud cover will be on the increase despite the warm air advection that will be in place. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Tuesday... The circulation around Michael will push moisture over the region in advance of a cold front. This will allow for showers and possibly thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. The cold front will push through on Thursday, with some precipitation lingering behind the front. Some models are showing 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain in the mountains, so will continue to watch closely although Michael should stay well to the southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM Tuesday... A cool high pressure system will build in briefly on Friday. An upper level trough will then push through late Friday night into Saturday, providing some light showers. A high pressure system will then return for Saturday night into Sunday. A warm front will then push northward Sunday or Sunday night, followed by a strong cold front on Monday. This will reinforce the cool fall weather for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 135 AM Wednesday... Mostly VFR conditions to start the period with some MVFR in stratcu in and along elevated mountain valleys vicinity of KBKW and KEKN. Some patchy FG may also develop, however with tightening surface gradients and breezes it may be hard pressed to develop, mainly after 08Z. Moisture increases during the day with a couple of upper level systems moving in from the south, arriving in the southern mountains at BKW after 18Z with more widespread MVFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratus timing BKW for tonight may vary. IFR visibilities in EKN may not occur. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/10/18 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR along showers or storms possible Wednesday night through Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KMC