167 FXUS61 KRLX 092337 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 737 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure tonight. Continued warm through Wednesday. Cold front crosses Thursday as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Much cooler in its wake for Friday and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 720 PM Tuesday... Some adjustments to the sky grids overnight, but the generalities of the forecast remain in place. Keeping the southeast upslope precipitation over eastern Pocahontas County, but otherwise, the overnight is dry for the CWA. As of 214 PM Tuesday... High pressure continues in control tonight with humid and warm conditions prevailing through Wednesday. Modest to strong boundary layer winds around 25 knots will prevent widespread fog formation tonight. Models depict a plume of moisture lifting north as a warm front Wednesday, ahead of an associated cold front. Coded low chance PoPs not trusting dry weather suggested by models. Additional, showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will be possible along the cold front, to reach southeast OH by the end of the period 12Z Thursday. Summer-like temperatures will continue tonight, but a little cooler on Thursday due to cloud cover and cooling showers. Minor changes to previous temperature forecast noted. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Tuesday... The circulation around Michael will push moisture over the region in advance of a cold front. This will allow for showers and possibly thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. The cold front will push through on Thursday, with some precipitation lingering behind the front. Some models are showing 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain in the mountains, so will continue to watch closely although Michael should stay well to the southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM Tuesday... A cool high pressure system will build in briefly on Friday. An upper level trough will then push through late Friday night into Saturday, providing some light showers. A high pressure system will then return for Saturday night into Sunday. A warm front will then push northward Sunday or Sunday night, followed by a strong cold front on Monday. This will reinforce the cool fall weather for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 720 PM Tuesday... Another overnight of southeast upslope brings MVFR ceilings to BKW. EKN will likely be the only other terminal with restrictions, and that would be IFR fog for a few hours late after 08Z. Confidence in this part of the forecast is lower however with some wind possible keeping the surface layer turbulent. Moisture increases with a couple of upper level systems moving in from the south, arriving in the southern mountains at BKW after 18Z Wednesday. The other terminals have a chance at -SHRA during the last 6 hours of the TAF as well, but as of now, it looks to be too scattered in nature further north and west for prevailing with this issuance. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratus timing BKW for tonight may vary. IFR visibilities in EKN may not occur. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR along showers or storms possible Wednesday night through Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...26/ARJ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26