013 FXUS61 KRLX 091936 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 336 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure tonight. Continued warm through Wednesday. Cold front crosses Thursday as the remnants of Michael pass to the east. Much cooler in its wake for Friday and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 214 PM Tuesday... High pressure continues in control tonight with humid and warm conditions prevailing through Wednesday. Modest to strong boundary layer winds around 25 knots will prevent widespread fog formation tonight. Models depict a plume of moisture lifting north as a warm front Wednesday, ahead of an associated cold front. Coded low chance PoPs not trusting dry weather suggested by models. Additional, showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will be possible along the cold front, to reach southeast OH by the end of the period 12Z Thursday. Summer-like temperatures will continue tonight, but a little cooler on Thursday due to cloud cover and cooling showers. Minor changes to previous temperature forecast noted. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Tuesday... The circulation around Michael will push moisture over the region in advance of a cold front. This will allow for showers and possibly thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. The cold front will push through on Thursday, with some precipitation lingering behind the front. Some models are showing 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain in the mountains, so will continue to watch closely although Michael should stay well to the southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM Tuesday... A cool high pressure system will build in briefly on Friday. An upper level trough will then push through late Friday night into Saturday, providing some light showers. A high pressure system will then return for Saturday night into Sunday. A warm front will then push northward Sunday or Sunday night, followed by a strong cold front on Monday. This will reinforce the cool fall weather for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM Tuesday... Widespread VFR conditions through the period. Mostly sunny skies will prevail this afternoon, with some thin cirrus clouds moving north across the area. Diurnal low level cu will also develop from the eastern mountains to central WV through the peak heating hours. Similar conditions expected tonight, with some low stratus redeveloping once again along the eastern slopes, perhaps affecting BKW under sfc south southeast flow. Boundary layer flow greater than 20 knots should prevent widespread fog formation over the most common places overnight. By Wednesday, models show a plume of moisture as seen in an increase in PWATs to around 2 inches, lifting north like a warm front. However, do not see any significant forcing mechanism to produce strong convection. Therefore, only expecting light to moderate rain showers with associated MVFR cloud cover. A strong FROPA to reach southeast OH early Thursday morning, and exit the eastern mountains by 00Z Friday. Expect brief periods of IFR conditions under showers and storms along the front, a sharp wind shift from the northwest is expected behind the front bringing much cooler temperatures. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratus affect BKW for a time tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR along showers or storms possible Wednesday night through Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ