612 FXUS65 KREV 110952 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 252 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A few light showers will persist across the Sierra in Mono County this afternoon with drier conditions in place through the weekend. Northeast to east winds are expected for the next few days with periods of stronger gusts over the Sierra ridges. Freezing temperatures are possible for lower elevations this weekend with more widespread lows below freezing possible for early Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Cool conditions prevail today as another shortwave trough digs across California and Nevada. As this trough amplifies, it will develop into a cut-off low across southern California over the weekend. What this means for our area is that we will see some light showers this afternoon mainly across Mono and far western Mineral counties but as the low begins to cut off, ridging will build to the north and thus provide us with drier weather with a few degrees of warming this weekend. Overall, precipitation today will be very light as moisture is limited with this shortwave. A few brief periods of graupel/snow pellets are also possible but mainly across Sierra crest in Mono county before diminishing this evening. Elsewhere, a dry and cool northeast surface flow will maintain cool temperatures with highs mainly in the lower 60s for western Nevada valleys and 50s near the Sierra. Clearing skies Thursday night may bring freezing temperatures to some valleys of northeast CA, although just enough east flow near and above the surface should limit the extent and duration of the coldest temperatures. East flow will increase across the Sierra crest tonight into Friday, with gusts of 35-45 mph expected. This east flow will return again on Saturday night. For lower elevations, northeast- east winds up to 10 mph will keep Friday's highs below average, but still about 5 degrees warmer than this afternoon. Fuentes .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday... Few changes were made to the extended part of the forecast this cycle. Caught between a ridge off the coast and a trough over the Intermountain West...our forecast area will be under the influence of northerly flow aloft and light northeast to east winds at the surface. Winds over the ridge tops will be a little brisk Sunday night...but should decrease further out in time. The light winds and generally clear conditions due to dry air aloft will allow for near maximal radiational cooling Sunday night and Monday night. We could see fairly widespread temperatures below freezing even in the more urbanized areas both Monday and Tuesday mornings. By late Tuesday the ridge begins to fold over into the western U.S. but there remain remnants of the low over the Desert Southwest. This set up plays out through Wednesday. The ECMWF does lift the low/trough more into the AZ/UT area by late Wednesday while the GFS holds it over southern CA/NV. The differences are subtle...but mainly involve the possibility of a little more wind over the southeast part of the forecast area Wednesday if the GFS solution wins out. Either scenario for Tuesday and Wednesday would lead to slightly warmer daytime highs for the forecast area with continued cool to cold nights. && .AVIATION... A departing low pressure system may provide MVFR/IFR CIGS this morning mainly for KTRK and KTVL. Should see these CIGS begin to erode after about 15z as drier air works its way in from the north. For this afternoon, only a few light showers are possible for KMMH with a snow pellet shower not out of the question but accumulations are unlikely. Surface winds will generally be NE-E this afternoon and this weekend with gusty conditions possible along the Sierra crest. Gusts of 40 knots from the east will be possible tonight and Sunday night through the Sierra crest. This may lead to areas of turbulence along and west of the crest. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno